{"generated_at":"2026-11-09T08:00:41+00:00","api_version":1,"license":"CC BY 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","categories":{"military":"Military posture","diplomatic":"Diplomatic / political","economic_info":"Economic / informational","ew_sigint":"EW / SIGINT"},"config":{"weights":{"military":0.35,"diplomatic":0.25,"economic_info":0.15,"ew_sigint":0.25},"baseline":{"window_days":30,"min_days":7,"std_floor":0.75,"deviation_gain":8.0,"z_clamp_low":-2.0,"z_clamp_high":3.0},"signals":{"spike_z":1.5,"spike_delta":2.0,"compound_window_days":3,"compound_min_categories":3,"converging_min_categories":2},"bands":{"elevated":25,"tense":50,"crisis":75},"methodology_version":"1.0"},"entries":[{"date":"2026-10-10","risk":36.48,"absolute":39.0,"z":-0.32,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["diplomatic"],"change_1d":-3.97,"slope_7d":-2.02,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":41.0,"summary":"Tension across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean held near its recent elevated plateau, with no confirmed new incidents in the 24 hours before this reading. The most recent confirmed friction  -  a 6 October armed-formation encounter over the Aegean and the unresolved Great Sea Interconnector cable-survey dispute  -  predates this window but remains unsettled. On Cyprus, President Christodoulides said there is \"no alternative\" to a settlement ahead of a 13 October meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Erh\u00fcrman, while a reported Varosha proposal remains unconfirmed by Nicosia.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new airspace or naval incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours; the overlapping Aegean exercise-NOTAM dispute remains unresolved and the most recent confirmed violation data (6 October) predates this window.","z":-0.54,"mean":4.43,"std":0.8,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Hellenic National Defence General Staff data for 6 October (reported 7 October by Greek media) recorded 15 Greek airspace violations including an armed-formation encounter with two F-16s west of Kastellorizo (Meis), the highest daily total in two months; no new violations were confirmed for 8-9 October."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Turkey's Aegean exercise-zone NOTAM (valid 25 Sep-27 Oct) and Greece's counter-notice (12-20 Oct), which Ankara has declared void, remain unresolved; no new vessel-shadowing or NAVTEX activity was confirmed in the past 24 hours."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"President Christodoulides reaffirmed there is \"no alternative\" to resolving the Cyprus problem and said he is ready for talks ahead of his 13 October meeting with Erh\u00fcrman; Nicosia has neither confirmed nor denied a reported Varosha/Famagusta-port proposal, and Erh\u00fcrman has criticised Christodoulides' broader proposals without a new government-to-government protest.","z":-0.71,"mean":4.53,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute remains unresolved: Athens says the project will proceed without Turkish coordination, while Turkish media (CNN T\u00fcrk, as reported by Greek outlets) say Ankara considers part of the route within its claimed continental shelf; no new development was confirmed in the past 24 hours.","z":0.71,"mean":4.47,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or communications interference attributable to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours. Scored at the routine default.","z":-0.22,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/09/christodoulides-no-alternative-but-to-solve-cyprus-problem","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides: 'no alternative but to solve Cyprus problem'","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/07/cyprus-leaders-to-meet-next-tuesday","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus leaders to meet next Tuesday","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.thenationalherald.com/erhurman-says-he-will-discuss-nothing-beyond-guterres-seven-points-continues-criticism-of-christodoulides/","title":"The National Herald: Erhurman Says He Will Discuss Nothing Beyond Guterres' Seven Points, Continues Criticism of Christodoulides","domain":"thenationalherald.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/07/turkey-records-highest-airspace-violations-in-two-months/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Records Highest Number of Airspace Violations in Two Months","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/06/greece-rejects-turkish-permission-cyprus-crete-power-cable/","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Rejects Turkish Permission Demand as Cyprus-Crete Power Cable Surveys Near Restart","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://tr.euronews.com/2026/10/07/kibris-erhurman-ve-hristodulidis-13-ekimde-yeniden-gorusecek","title":"Euronews: K\u0131br\u0131s: Erh\u00fcrman ve Hristodulidis 13 Ekim'de yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecek (Turkish)","domain":"tr.euronews.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"The public index's own dataset","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- The public index's own dataset (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1791706490563000&sa=E) had not been updated past 5 October at the time of this run; calibration is based on the 29 September-5 October entries (military/diplomatic ~4-5, economic_info ~5-6, ew_sigint steady at 3).\n- The most recent confirmed military incident is the 6 October armed-formation encounter (two Turkish F-16s) west of Kastellorizo (Meis) and 15 Greek airspace violations reported by the Hellenic National Defence General Staff; this is mentioned as context and was not scored as a new event for this date.\n- On Cyprus, a Phileleftheros report that Christodoulides proposed reopening Varosha under UN administration in exchange for EU-supervised Famagusta port access has been neither confirmed nor denied by the Presidential Press Office; Erh\u00fcrman has denied acting under instructions from Ankara regarding this or a related report.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector dispute continues: Greece says surveys will proceed without Turkish coordination; Turkish claims that part of the cable route crosses its continental shelf are known only via Turkish media as reported by Greek outlets, not a direct Turkish government statement, and are treated here as a claim.\n- No GPS/GNSS jamming or spoofing incidents attributable to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye were found in the past 24 hours.\n- No manipulation attempts were identified in the sources reviewed for this reading.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-11","risk":48.56,"absolute":45.0,"z":0.44,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":12.08,"slope_7d":-1.75,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":49.0,"summary":"Tension held at its recent plateau, with no newly confirmed military incident in the past 24 hours. Prime Minister Mitsotakis restated Greece's rejection of Turkish demands over the Cyprus-Crete power cable and called T\u00fcrkiye's 'Blue Homeland' doctrine historically unfounded, while the Aegean exercise-NOTAM standoff remained unresolved ahead of Greece's 12-20 October drills.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Hellenic MoD violation count was available for 9-10 Oct; the Aegean exercise-NOTAM standoff continued unresolved ahead of Greece's 12-20 Oct drills.","z":0.7,"mean":4.47,"std":0.76,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Most recent confirmed Hellenic MoD figures (6 Oct, published 7 Oct) showed 15 national-airspace violations including two armed F-16s; no newer count was found for 9-10 Oct."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel had not resumed work as of this report, and no new naval incident was confirmed for 9-10 Oct."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"PM Mitsotakis said Greece will not cede sovereign rights over the Cyprus-Crete cable and called T\u00fcrkiye's 'Blue Homeland' doctrine historically unfounded, while saying communication channels with Ankara remain open.","z":0.62,"mean":4.53,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute remained at an impasse, with T\u00fcrkiye's Defence Ministry still objecting to work on its claimed continental shelf and no new NAVTEX confirmed issued.","z":0.67,"mean":4.5,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No jamming, spoofing, or communications-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.22,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/10/greek-prime-minister-rules-out-early-elections","title":"Greek City Times: Greek Prime Minister Rules Out Early Elections","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/07/turkey-records-highest-airspace-violations-in-two-months","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Records Highest Number of Airspace Violations in Two Months","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/01/turkey-says-it-will-block-greece-cyprus-cable-work-on-its-continental-shelf/","title":"ProtoThema English: Turkey says it will block Greece-Cyprus cable work on its continental shelf","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/rubio-signals-us-push-ease-greece-turkey-cable-tensions","title":"Al-Monitor: Rubio signals US push to ease Greece-Turkey cable tensions","domain":"al-monitor.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkish-greek-cypriot-leaders-to-hold-new-round-of-talks-oct-13/news","title":"Daily Sabah: Turkish, Greek Cypriot leaders to hold new round of talks Oct. 13","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration note","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- No new Hellenic MoD airspace-violation figures were found for 9-10 Oct; the most recent confirmed report (15 national-airspace violations, incl. two armed F-16s) concerns 6 Oct, published 7 Oct.\n- Watch: Greece's 12-20 October Aegean exercise notice, which T\u00fcrkiye declared \"null and void\" on 3 Oct (reported only by Greek outlets), is due to take effect tomorrow.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector dispute remains unresolved: T\u00fcrkiye says the route crosses its claimed continental shelf and wants prior coordination; Athens says it will not seek Turkish permission. No new NAVTEX was confirmed issued in the past 24 hours.\n- US Secretary of State Rubio said Washington is \"very committed\" to the interconnector and would use diplomacy to address \"potential impediments,\" following his early-October Athens visit.\n- Watch: Turkish Cypriot leader Erh\u00fcrman and Greek Cypriot President Christodoulides are due to meet on 13 Oct in the buffer zone on the Cyprus question.\n- Calibration note: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1791792899387000&sa=E has no published entries for 7-10 Oct (last entry 6 Oct), so this reading extends the most recent plateau rather than comparing against a same-week published baseline.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-12","risk":48.41,"absolute":45.0,"z":0.43,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.15,"slope_7d":-1.45,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Tension held at its recent plateau. Cyprus reported hundreds of Turkish air and naval violations from earlier months to the UN Secretary-General, and Foreign Minister Kombos was due to raise T\u00fcrkiye's planned gas pipeline to the occupied north at the EU Foreign Affairs Council. No new military incident was confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours, though the Greek-Turkish NOTAM dispute over Aegean exercise zones remains unresolved as Greece's own 12-20 October drill period opens today.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new airspace or naval incident was confirmed in 24h open-source reporting; Greece's Aegean exercise-zone period (NOTAM A3595/26) opened today amid T\u00fcrkiye's unresolved rival notice (A4388/26).","z":0.7,"mean":4.47,"std":0.76,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No new Athens FIR violations or interceptions were reported today; the counter-NOTAM dispute over overlapping Aegean exercise zones, reported 3 Oct, remains unresolved as Greece's drill period opens."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"No new vessel-shadowing or naval incident was confirmed today; Greece's naval exercise zones under NOTAM A3595/26 continue to overlap T\u00fcrkiye's zones (NOTAM A3788/26), a standoff dating to late September."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Cyprus reported 659 Turkish air and naval violations, concerning June-July, to the UN Secretary-General, per Cyprus Mail.","z":0.58,"mean":4.57,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Cyprus FM Kombos was due to raise T\u00fcrkiye's planned Alanya-Kyrenia gas pipeline to the occupied north at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg, continuing a dispute over energy infrastructure to the island.","z":0.62,"mean":4.53,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals-interference incident linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the 24-hour window.","z":-0.22,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/12/cyprus-reports-659-turkish-air-and-naval-violations-to-un","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus reports 659 Turkish air and naval violations to UN","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/11/cyprus-to-raise-planned-turkish-natural-gas-pipeline-with-eu","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus to raise planned Turkish natural gas pipeline with EU","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/09/mitsotakis-on-greek-turkish-relations-theres-a-light-breeze-in-the-aegean-the-electricity-cable-can-move-forward-without-any-concessions-on-our-sovereign-rights/","title":"ProtoThema English: Mitsotakis on Greek-Turkish relations: 'there's a light breeze in the Aegean,' the electricity cable can move forward without any concessions on our sovereign rights","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/03/greece-locks-in-aegean-exercise-zones-as-turkey-protests/","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Locks In Aegean Exercise Zones As Turkey Protests","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-turkish-cyprus-sign-mou-for-gas-pipeline-project-224233","title":"Hurriyet Daily News: Turkiye, Turkish Cyprus sign MoU for gas pipeline project","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://pio.mfa.gov.ct.tr/en/pm-ustel-condemns-kallas/","title":"TRNC Public Information Office: PM Ustel condemns Kallas","domain":"pio.mfa.gov.ct.tr","category":null}],"notes":"- The 659-violation count Cyprus reported to the UN on 12 Oct concerns Turkish air and naval activity in June-July 2026, not the past 24 hours; it reflects Nicosia's periodic protest practice to the UN Secretary-General rather than a new incident.\n- The EU Foreign Affairs Council item on Turkiye's Alanya-Kyrenia gas pipeline to the occupied north (raised by Cyprus 12 Oct, Luxembourg) continues a dispute dating to the MoU's July 2026 signing, when the EU's Kallas criticised the project and the Turkish Cypriot administration's PM Ustel rejected her remarks as biased.\n- Greece's own Aegean exercise-zone period (NOTAM A3595/26) opened today, 12 October, overlapping Turkiye's zones under NOTAM A3788/26; Ankara's counter-notice (A4388/26) declaring the Greek NOTAM \"null and void\" was first reported 3 October and remains unresolved, with no new incident confirmed since.\n- No new GNSS interference, airspace violation, or naval incident was independently confirmed in open-source reporting for the 24-hour window.\n- Watch: the outcome of today's EU Foreign Affairs Council discussion on the pipeline, and whether the opening of Greece's 12-20 October exercise period prompts fresh Turkish air activity or NOTAM exchanges.\n- Correction: this supersedes an earlier email sent today for 2026-10-12 that had a YAML nesting error (naval was nested under airspace instead of as its own sibling key under military). Please disregard that earlier message and use this version.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-13","risk":41.07,"absolute":41.5,"z":-0.05,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-7.34,"slope_7d":-1.92,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"No new military incidents were confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours, and reported airspace activity eased from earlier in the week. The main development was procedural: Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erh\u00fcrman were due to hold their next round of UN-mediated talks in the buffer zone this afternoon, continuing a process agreed earlier this year. The Aegean exercise-NOTAM dispute and the Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute remain unresolved but unchanged from prior days.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new airspace or naval incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours; the most recent Hellenic General Staff-reported violations (six Turkish UAVs, 10 Oct) remain the latest confirmed data.","z":-0.65,"mean":4.5,"std":0.76,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No new Hellenic MoD-reported violations for 11-12 Oct; the last confirmed report covered 10 Oct activity (8 Athens FIR and 5 national-airspace violations by six Turkish UAVs), published 11 Oct."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new vessel-shadowing or NAVTEX incidents reported in the past 24 hours; the Greece-Cyprus cable-survey dispute remains unresolved from prior days."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders were due to hold UN-mediated talks in the buffer zone this afternoon, continuing their agreement to meet weekly; no new ministerial statements or d\u00e9marches were reported.","z":0.58,"mean":4.57,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector seabed-survey dispute remains unresolved; Greece has rejected Ankara's demand for prior authorisation of surveys near Kasos and Karpathos.","z":0.58,"mean":4.57,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing, or communications-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye were reported.","z":-0.22,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/11/turkish-drones-violate-greek-airspace/","title":"GreekReporter: Six Turkish Drones Involved in Greek Airspace Violations Over Aegean","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/06/christodoulides-to-ask-to-meet-erhurman-next-week","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides to ask to meet Erhurman next week","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkish-greek-cypriot-leaders-to-hold-new-round-of-talks-oct-13/news","title":"Daily Sabah: Turkish, Greek Cypriot leaders to hold new round of talks Oct. 13","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/06/greece-rejects-turkish-permission-cyprus-crete-power-cable","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Rejects Turkish Permission Demand as Cyprus-Crete Power Cable Surveys Near Restart","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/another-round-of-aegean-airspace-athens-fir-violations-reported/","title":"To Vima: Another Round of Aegean Airspace, Athens FIR Violations Reported","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org","title":null,"domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- No new Hellenic MoD-reported airspace or FIR violations were found for 11-12 Oct; the most recent confirmed report (six Turkish UAVs, eight Athens FIR and five national-airspace violations) concerned 10 Oct, published 11 Oct by GreekReporter citing the Hellenic National Defence General Staff.\n- Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erh\u00fcrman were scheduled to meet in the UN buffer zone this afternoon (13 Oct, 15:30 local), continuing the weekly round of UN-mediated talks; the outcome was not yet known at filing time.\n- The contested Greek military-exercise NOTAM for 12-20 Oct, which T\u00fcrkiye disputed in early October, takes effect today; no incidents have been reported so far.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector seabed-survey dispute remains unresolved: Greece has rejected Ankara's demand for prior authorisation of surveys near Kasos and Karpathos.\n- https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org&source=gmail&ust=1791965633922000&sa=E's own published data currently ends at 7 Oct (that day's entry incomplete), with no entries for 8-12 Oct; today's deltas are calculated against the 6 Oct entry, the last fully available score.\n- No GNSS jamming or spoofing incidents plausibly linked to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye were found in available trackers or reporting today.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-14","risk":48.0,"absolute":45.0,"z":0.38,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":6.93,"slope_7d":-0.2,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Greek-Turkish and intra-Cypriot tension held at its recent plateau. The Republic of Cyprus and Turkish Cypriot leaders met in the UN buffer zone on 13 October and agreed a Cyprus settlement must follow UN Security Council resolutions, though an enlarged five-party meeting remains unresolved. No new airspace, naval or GNSS incident was confirmed in the past 24 hours, and the Aegean exercise-zone NOTAM dispute and Great Sea Interconnector impasse remain unresolved from prior days.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new airspace or naval incident confirmed in the 24-hour window; the most recent confirmed violations (6 Turkish UAVs, 8 Athens FIR and 5 national-airspace breaches) were on 10 October per Greek military sources, and the Aegean exercise-zone NOTAM dispute remains unresolved.","z":0.62,"mean":4.53,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No violations reported in the window; the most recent confirmed incursions date to 10 October, per Greek military sources."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Turkey's Oruc Reis NAVTEX for the pipeline survey off northern Cyprus remains active to 25 October; no new shadowing or naval incident was reported today."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Christodoulides and Erhurman met in the UN buffer zone on 13 October, agreeing a settlement must not deviate from UN resolutions and to jointly attend the Pyla bicommunal festival, but reached no agreement on an enlarged five-party meeting.","z":0.53,"mean":4.6,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new licensing, cyber or disinformation development was confirmed; the Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute and Turkey's objection to unauthorised seabed work remain stalemated from prior days.","z":0.53,"mean":4.6,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals interference was reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the window.","z":-0.22,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/13/leaders-agree-that-cyprus-solution-must-not-deviate-from-un-resolutions-christodoulides-says","title":"Cyprus Mail: Leaders agree that Cyprus solution must not deviate from UN resolutions, Christodoulides says","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/13/christodoulides-erhurman-agree-to-attend-pyla-festival-on-saturday","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides, Erhurman agree to attend Pyla festival on Saturday","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.sigmalive.com/christodoulides-tells-erhurman-cyprus-is-not-afraid-of-dialogue-or-negotiations/","title":"SigmaLive: Christodoulides tells Erhurman Cyprus is not afraid of dialogue or negotiations","domain":"en.sigmalive.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cb.gov.ct.tr/en/basin/haberler/cumhurbaskni-tufan-erhurman-ile-rum-lider-nikos-hristodulidis","title":"TRNC Presidency: President Tufan Erhurman meets Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides (Turkish)","domain":"cb.gov.ct.tr","category":"official"},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkish-greek-cypriot-leaders-to-hold-new-round-of-talks-oct-13/news","title":"Daily Sabah: Turkish, Greek Cypriot leaders to hold new round of talks Oct. 13","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/11/turkish-drones-violate-greek-airspace/","title":"Greek Reporter: Six Turkish Drones Involved in Greek Airspace Violations Over Aegean","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/news/turkish-drones-violate-greek-airspace-sea/","title":"Militarnyi: Six Turkish Drones Violate Greek Airspace Over the Aegean Sea","domain":"militarnyi.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration data from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration data from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792052146664000&sa=E covered 14 September-7 October 2026 only (24 entries); no entries newer than 7 October were returned, so today's deltas are measured against the 7 October scores rather than against a more recent reading.\n- No new airspace, naval or GNSS incident was confirmed in the 24-hour window; the most recent confirmed Aegean airspace violations (six Turkish UAVs, eight Athens FIR and five national-airspace breaches) occurred on 10 October per Greek military sources and are mentioned for context only, not scored as today's event.\n- The 13 October Cyprus leaders' meeting is reported mainly from the Republic of Cyprus side (Christodoulides); Turkish Cypriot leader Erhurman made no public statement afterward, and the Turkish Cypriot presidency's own readout contained no direct quotes from him.\n- No Reuters, AP or AFP coverage of the 13 October Cyprus meeting was located; balance here relies on Cyprus Mail, SigmaLive and the Turkish Cypriot presidency's official readout.\n- To watch: UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin's planned visit to Cyprus before end-October, the next Christodoulides-Erhurman meeting, and whether the active Oruc Reis NAVTEX (through 25 October) or the Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute produces a new incident.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-16","risk":34.99,"absolute":39.0,"z":-0.5,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-13.01,"slope_7d":-0.69,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":39.0,"summary":"Tension stayed at routine-to-elevated levels. Greek authorities reported four national-airspace violations and eleven Athens FIR infringements by Turkish UAVs on 15 October, with no mock dogfights. The main development was economic: Cyprus said a long-delayed Great Sea Interconnector cable-survey NAVTEX will be issued by end of October, reviving a dispute T\u00fcrkiye says requires its prior approval. Diplomatic friction stayed confined to intra-Cypriot politics.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Greek authorities reported 6 Turkish UAVs causing 4 national-airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR infringements on 15 Oct; General Staff said no mock dogfights occurred.","z":-0.87,"mean":4.66,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"4 national-airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR infringements by 6 Turkish UAVs on 15 Oct, per Greek data; no armed aircraft involved."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No vessel-shadowing or naval incident reported; the Great Sea Interconnector survey remains in pre-NAVTEX administrative review."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-2.0,"note":"Friction stayed intra-Cypriot: Turkish Cypriot Nicosia mayor Harmanci said Christodoulides has become a prisoner of rising ultranationalism in a forum-title dispute.","z":-0.83,"mean":4.62,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Cyprus's energy minister said a NAVTEX for Great Sea Interconnector seabed surveys near Crete will issue by end of October; a Turkish academic repeated Ankara's permission demand.","z":0.46,"mean":4.66,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or radar/comms interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.23,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.emakedonia.gr/toyrkikes-prokliseis-sto-aighaio-4-paraviaseis-toy-ethnikou-enaerioy-choroy-apo-mi-epandromena-aeroskafi","title":"e-Makedonia: New Turkish provocations in the Aegean - 4 violations of national airspace by unmanned aircraft (Greek)","domain":"emakedonia.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/15/damianos-interconnector-navtex-will-be-issued-by-end-of-month","title":"Cyprus Mail: Great Sea Interconnector navtex will be issued by end of month","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/15/how-the-path-was-cleared-for-work-to-resume-on-the-greece-cyprus-cable-frances-moves-and-the-turkey-backdrop/","title":"ProtoThema English: How the path was cleared for work to resume on the Greece-Cyprus cable - France's moves and the Turkey backdrop","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/15/harmanci-christodoulides-has-become-a-prisoner-of-rising-ultranationalism","title":"Cyprus Mail: Harmanci - Christodoulides has become a prisoner of rising ultranationalism","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-we-wont-allow-greece-cyprus-cable-without-our-approval/","title":"To Vima: Turkey - We Won't Allow Greece-Cyprus Cable Without Our Approval","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/12/turkish-violations-cyprus-un/","title":"Greek Reporter: Cyprus Reports 659 Turkish Air and Naval Violations to UN","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"https://tr.euronews.com/2026/10/08/turkiye-ile-gerilime-yol-acan-yunanistan-kibris-elektrik-projesinde-yeni-adim","title":"Euronews: Turkiye ile gerilime yol acan Yunanistan-Kibris elektrik projesinde yeni adim (Turkish)","domain":"tr.euronews.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration gap","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration gap: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792224960552000&sa=E was reachable but its fully-readable entries ran only through 2026-10-08 (military 5, diplomatic 6); the homepage separately showed a 2026-10-11 reading (military 5, diplomatic 5, economic 5, ew 3), but entries for 10-09 through 10-15 could not be retrieved in full. Deltas above are measured against the last fully retrievable score per category (2026-10-08 for military/diplomatic; 2026-10-07 for economic_info/ew_sigint, since 10-08's values were cut off in the source).\n- The 15 October airspace figures are attributed by Greek outlets to unnamed \"official data\"; no primary Hellenic National Defence General Staff bulletin was independently located today.\n- No naval shadowing, GNSS/radar interference, or UN buffer-zone incident was found reported in the past 24 hours.\n- T\u00fcrkiye's objection to the Great Sea Interconnector survey rests on its 1 October Defence Ministry briefing and a 15 October academic restatement; no fresh official Turkish statement from the last 24 hours was found, and both governments declined to comment when asked by ProtoThema.\n- Watch: whether Greece issues the Great Sea Interconnector NAVTEX before end of October, and how T\u00fcrkiye responds (a counter-NAVTEX, naval monitoring, or formal protest are all plausible based on prior reporting).","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-17","risk":47.3,"absolute":45.0,"z":0.29,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":12.31,"slope_7d":-1.01,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":50.0,"summary":"Turkey issued two NAVTEX notices within hours on 16 October, disputing Greek authority over the multinational EUNOMIA 2026 live-fire exercise area south of Kastellorizo and separately asserting continental-shelf jurisdiction over the planned Cyprus-Crete cable survey corridor. Cyprus's reunification process remained stalled, with a Cyprus Mail editorial calling the talks \"political theatre,\" even as President Christodoulides announced a high-level EU-Turkey meeting on the Cyprus problem before the end of October. No new airspace incidents or electronic-interference reports were confirmed in the past 24 hours.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Turkey's Antalya NAVTEX station disputed Greek authority over the EUNOMIA 2026 live-fire exercise area south of Kastellorizo (19 Oct), then issued a second notice over the Cyprus-Crete cable survey corridor, both asserting Turkish continental-shelf jurisdiction.","z":0.41,"mean":4.69,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"Hellenic MoD reported 4 national airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR violations by six Turkish UAVs over the NE/SE Aegean on 15 October, the most recent confirmed figure available."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Dueling NAVTEX notices covered the EUNOMIA exercise zone and the GSI cable survey route; the French-chartered vessel Abeille Marengo remains unauthorised to transit pending Greek clearance."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Cyprus reunification talks remain stalled, with confidence-building measures unresolved since July, even as Christodoulides announced a high-level EU-Turkey meeting on the Cyprus problem before the end of October.","z":0.55,"mean":4.59,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Turkey issued two NAVTEX notices in one day claiming continental-shelf jurisdiction over the Cyprus-Crete GSI cable survey corridor, as Cyprus's energy minister said Nicosia's own NAVTEX for the surveys is expected within October.","z":0.41,"mean":4.69,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or other interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.23,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-live-fire-exercise-kastellorizo/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Issues Navtex for Live-Fire Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-issues-counter-navtex-for-exercise-south-of-kastellorizo","title":"To Vima: Turkey Issues Counter-NAVTEX for Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-we-wont-allow-greece-cyprus-cable-without-our-approval","title":"To Vima: Turkey Won't Allow Greece-Cyprus Cable Without Its Approval, Defence Ministry Says","domain":"tovima.com","category":"official"},{"url":"https://en.sigmalive.com/gsi-turkey-issues-navtex-for-area-where-french-ship-is-due-to-pass/","title":"Sigmalive: GSI - Turkey Issues NAVTEX for Area Where French Ship Is Due to Pass","domain":"en.sigmalive.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/16/turkey-issues-second-anti-navtex-in-hours-challenging-cypruss-eez-and-emc-cable-survey-operations-linking-asia-and-europe/","title":"ProtoThema English: Turkey Issues Second Anti-NAVTEX in Hours, Challenging Cyprus's EEZ and EMC Cable Survey Operations Linking Asia and Europe","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/15/four-violations-of-greek-airspace-by-turkish-uavs-in-the-aegean/","title":"ProtoThema English: Four Violations of Greek Airspace by Turkish UAVs in the Aegean","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":"official"},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/16/our-view-cyprus-talks-have-become-political-theatre","title":"Cyprus Mail: Our View - Cyprus Talks Have Become Political Theatre","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/15/harmanci-christodoulides-has-become-a-prisoner-of-rising-ultranationalism","title":"Cyprus Mail: Harmanci - Christodoulides Has Become a Prisoner of Rising Ultranationalism","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/16/euturkey-summit-in-october-aims-to-restart-cyprus-talks","title":"Euronews: EU-Turkey Summit in October Aims to Restart Cyprus Talks","domain":"euronews.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration data from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration data from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792311295308000&sa=E was available only through 8 October 2026; today's scores were set from the rubric and anchors, kept consistent with the last published readings (military 5, diplomatic 6, economic/info 6, ew/sigint 3).\n- The 4 national-violation/11 FIR-violation figure under military/airspace was reported by the Hellenic MoD concerning 15 October, one day before this assessment's 24-hour window; no newer figure was found in sources reviewed.\n- Turkey's two 16 October NAVTEX notices were reported mainly through Greek and Cypriot outlets; no Turkish government statement or Cypriot government reaction specific to the second (cable-survey) notice was found in the sources reviewed today.\n- The Christodoulides-Erhurman track has not agreed on the six or seven confidence-building measures discussed with UN Secretary-General Guterres in July; both leaders are due to jointly attend a bicommunal peace festival at Pyla on 18 October.\n- Watch: the EUNOMIA live-fire exercise scheduled for 19 October and any naval or air response to it; the promised EU-Turkey high-level meeting on Cyprus before the end of October; and whether Greece issues its own NAVTEX for the GSI cable surveys this month, as Cyprus's energy minister anticipated.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-18","risk":41.95,"absolute":42.5,"z":-0.07,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-5.35,"slope_7d":-0.71,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"A new NAVTEX dispute emerged over the Eastern Mediterranean waters hosting the multinational Eunomia 2026 exercise and the planned Great Sea Interconnector cable survey, after T\u00fcrkiye's Antalya station challenged Greek NAVTEX authority there; no new airspace-violation count was found for today. Separately, the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriot administration's leaders jointly attended a bicommunal festival in the Pyla buffer-zone village, a modestly positive signal amid otherwise stalled Cyprus talks.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"T\u00fcrkiye issued a counter-NAVTEX disputing Greek authority over the area for the Eunomia 2026 exercise (Greece, Republic of Cyprus, France, Italy; live fire due 19 Oct south of Kastellorizo/Meis).","z":0.37,"mean":4.72,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new Hellenic MoD daily violation count was found for today; recent days have ranged from routine overflights to a 6 October dogfight claim."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Eunomia 2026's multinational naval and air phase began 16 Oct in waters that also host the planned Great Sea Interconnector survey route."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"President Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Erhurman jointly attended the Pyla bicommunal festival, calling it a 'message of peace'; no d\u00e9marche or ministerial warning was reported.","z":-0.78,"mean":4.59,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Athens said it would proceed with Great Sea Interconnector seabed surveys without Turkish permission after Ankara's NAVTEX challenged Greek jurisdiction over the route.","z":0.37,"mean":4.72,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference reports linked to Greece, the Republic of Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were found for today; scored at the routine default.","z":-0.23,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-greece-at-odds-over-east-med-naval-drill-228229","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: T\u00fcrkiye, Greece at odds over east Med naval drill","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-greece-cyprus-link/","title":"GreekReporter: Turkey Issues NAVTEX Ahead of Greece-Cyprus Power Link Surveys","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-live-fire-exercise-kastellorizo/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Issues Navtex for Live-Fire Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-issues-counter-navtex-for-exercise-south-of-kastellorizo/","title":"To Vima: Turkey issues counter-navtex for exercise south of Kastellorizo","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/17/christodoulides-erhurman-send-message-of-peace-at-pyla-festival","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides, Erhurman send 'message of peace' at Pyla festival","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration note: the index's own API data","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration note: the index's own API data (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792397397950000&sa=E) currently ends at 9 October; days 10-16 October could not be retrieved, so today's scores are anchored to the 3-9 October baseline (military ~5, diplomatic 4-6, economic 5-6, ew_sigint 3) plus the written rubric, with a wider-than-usual margin of uncertainty.\n- The NAVTEX/counter-NAVTEX exchange is a jurisdictional dispute over who may issue maritime warnings in the area, not a confirmed naval incident; no shadowing of the French survey vessel Abeille Marengo has been reported, as surveys have not yet resumed.\n- Eunomia 2026 (Greece, Republic of Cyprus, France, Italy) is scheduled to run 16-22 October, with a live-fire phase on 19 October south of Kastellorizo (Meis); worth watching for a Turkish reaction once the exercise's active phase and any cable-survey resumption coincide.\n- The Pyla bicommunal festival was a symbolic, de-escalatory event; Turkish Cypriot leader Erhurman did not respond publicly to Christodoulides' remarks, per Cyprus Mail.\n- No Hellenic MoD daily violation figures, UNFICYP buffer-zone incidents, or GNSS/radar-interference reports tied to the three countries were found published for the 24 hours covered.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-19","risk":41.76,"absolute":42.5,"z":-0.09,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-0.19,"slope_7d":-0.19,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":44.0,"summary":"Cyprus diplomacy turned publicly contentious after a cordial bicommunal gesture, while Greece and T\u00fcrkiye traded dueling NAVTEX notices over a naval exercise area that overlaps the planned route of the Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable. No new airspace or electronic-interference incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Turkish Antalya station issued a counter-NAVTEX (16 Oct) disputing Greek authority over the Eunomia 2026 live-fire exercise area, due to run today; no fresh violations report found for 17-18 Oct.","z":0.32,"mean":4.76,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No Hellenic MoD violations report located for 17-18 Oct; the most recent confirmed figures (7 aircraft, 9 national-airspace violations, one air encounter) cover 5 Oct and were already reflected in an earlier reading."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Dueling NAVTEX notices (Greek Heraklion station, 15 Oct; Turkish Antalya station, 16 Oct) dispute jurisdiction over the area for the Eunomia 2026 Greece-France-Italy-Cyprus live-fire exercise, scheduled for today."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"President Christodoulides publicly accused Turkish Cypriot leader Erh\u00fcrman of setting rotating-presidency preconditions on resuming Cyprus talks (18 Oct), a day after the two jointly attended a bicommunal 'peace' festival in Pyla.","z":-0.78,"mean":4.59,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Turkey's counter-NAVTEX disputes Greek/Cypriot authority over waters overlapping the planned Great Sea Interconnector survey route, as Athens and Nicosia prepare to resume cable surveys without Ankara's consent.","z":0.32,"mean":4.76,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar interference reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.23,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-live-fire-exercise-kastellorizo/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Issues Navtex for Live-Fire Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-greece-cyprus-link/","title":"Greek Reporter: Turkey Issues NAVTEX Ahead of Greece-Cyprus Power Link Surveys","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-issues-counter-navtex-for-exercise-south-of-kastellorizo/","title":"To Vima: Turkey Issues Counter-Navtex for Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/18/christodoulides-accuses-erhurman-of-setting-preconditions-on-resumption-of-talks","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides accuses Erhurman of 'setting preconditions' on resumption of talks","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/17/christodoulides-erhurman-send-message-of-peace-at-pyla-festival","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides, Erhurman send 'message of peace' at Pyla festival","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/18/erhurman-guterres-said-barcelona-camp-cancellation-was-discouraging","title":"Cyprus Mail: Erhurman: Guterres said Barcelona camp cancellation was 'discouraging'","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/19/greece-watches-guilfoyle-fallout-as-turkey-cable-dispute-looms/","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Watches Guilfoyle Fallout as Turkey Cable Dispute Looms","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration gap: the latest entry on","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration gap: the latest entry on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792483933909000&sa=E is dated 2026-10-09 (composite 40.45, scores 5/4/4/3); no entries were found for 10-12 through 10-18, so today's scores are calibrated against that entry and the written rubric/anchors directly.\n- Eunomia 2026 is an annual Greece-France-Italy-Cyprus naval/air exercise; its live-firing window is scheduled for 0400-1000Z today (19 Oct) in an area reported as south of Kastellorizo (Meis)/east of Crete, which overlaps the planned survey route for the Great Sea Interconnector cable.\n- Cyprus track: a cordial bicommunal festival in Pyla on 17 Oct was followed by a public blame exchange on 18 Oct over preconditions for resuming talks; Erh\u00fcrman separately said UN Secretary-General Guterres called the cancellation of a Barcelona FC youth camp in the north \"discouraging.\"\n- Background, not scored today: Greek and Turkish press continue to discuss a draft Turkish \"Mavi Vatan\" (Blue Homeland) maritime law reportedly being finalized in Ankara; no new legislative step was confirmed in the past 24 hours.\n- Sourcing limitation: a Turkish or Turkish Cypriot outlet's direct account of the 16 Oct NAVTEX exchange could not be retrieved (Anadolu Agency's analysis page was blocked by robots.txt; other search results returned only older, unrelated NAVTEX disputes). The Turkish station's position is relayed here via Greek press reporting of the notice text.\n- Watch: the outcome of today's Eunomia live-fire window, any Turkish MFA/MoD statement on the counter-NAVTEX, and whether Christodoulides-Erh\u00fcrman talks formally resume or stall further.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-20","risk":37.43,"absolute":40.0,"z":-0.32,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-4.33,"slope_7d":-1.07,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":42.0,"summary":"Tension held close to its recent plateau. The quadripartite Eunomia exercise went ahead with live fire south of Kastellorizo (Meis) on 19 October alongside a Turkish counter-Navtex disputing Greek maritime jurisdiction, while Nicosia hosted a new round of Cyprus settlement talks and continuing disagreement over financing and survey access for the Greece-Cyprus power cable.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Eunomia 2026 (Greece, Cyprus, France, Italy) held scheduled live-fire drills south of Kastellorizo on 19 Oct; Greek outlets reported T\u00fcrkiye's Antalya station issued a competing Navtex disputing Greek jurisdiction over the exercise area.","z":-1.01,"mean":4.76,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No new Athens FIR violations were confirmed in the past 24 hours in sources checked; the most recent Hellenic MoD reporting, from early October, had shown an above-routine pace."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The Eunomia live-fire exercise and the overlapping Greek and Turkish Navtex notices were the main naval-domain activity; no vessel-shadowing or survey-vessel incident was reported in the window."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Cyprus Energy Minister Damianos said Great Sea Interconnector costs have risen to 302m euros (from 250m euros) and tied government payments to construction progress; T\u00fcrkiye is expected to object once a seabed-survey Navtex is issued, expected by month's end.","z":0.55,"mean":4.59,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or other electronic-warfare incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.23,"mean":3.17,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/16/turkey-navtex-live-fire-exercise-kastellorizo/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Issues Navtex for Live-Fire Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/turkey-issues-counter-navtex-for-exercise-south-of-kastellorizo/","title":"To Vima: Turkey Issues Counter-Navtex for Exercise South of Kastellorizo","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/leaders-meet-christodoulides-hopes-for-positive-developments","title":"Cyprus Mail: Leaders meet, Christodoulides hopes for positive developments","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/19/if-electricity-does-not-come-to-cyprus-we-will-not-pay-damianos-says-of-gsi","title":"Cyprus Mail: 'If electricity does not come to Cyprus, we will not pay', Damianos says of GSI","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://neoskosmos.com/en/2026/10/18/news/world/us-senator-accuses-turkey-of-thuggish-behavior-toward-greece-and-cyprus/","title":"Neos Kosmos (AP): US senator accuses Turkey of 'thuggish behavior' toward Greece and Cyprus","domain":"neoskosmos.com","category":"wire"},{"url":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/16/euturkey-summit-in-october-aims-to-restart-cyprus-talks","title":"Euronews: EU-Turkey summit in October aims to restart Cyprus talks","domain":"euronews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/sen-rick-scott-leads-us-congressional-delegation-athens-days-after-rubio-visit","title":"iefimerida: Sen. Rick Scott Leads U.S. Congressional Delegation to Athens, Days After Rubio Visit","domain":"iefimerida.gr","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"The index's published data (fetched from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- The index's published data (fetched from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792570429648000&sa=E) currently ends 9 October 2026; no entries for 10-19 October were available, so today's deltas are measured against the 9 October reading.\n- The Eunomia exercise and competing Navtex notices follow a recurring pattern around joint Greek-French-Italian-Cypriot Aegean drills; no Turkish government statement or Turkish-language outlet report on today's Navtex dispute or the Cyprus talks was located in the sources checked, so Turkish positions here rest on Greek and Cypriot reporting.\n- Reporting on Cyprus settlement talks (Christodoulides-Erh\u00fcrman meeting) was limited to the fact that the meeting was scheduled for today; no outcome was available at the time of this assessment.\n- Great Sea Interconnector cost figures (302m euros vs 250m euros, with only 82m euros verified by the Cypriot regulator Cera) come from Cyprus's energy minister as reported by Cyprus Mail; Admie (Greece) and Cera (Cyprus) did not independently confirm figures to this outlet.\n- No GPS/GNSS jamming, airspace, or naval incidents specific to Greece-T\u00fcrkiye-Cyprus were confirmed in the 24-hour window via the sources checked.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-21","risk":44.89,"absolute":44.0,"z":0.11,"band":"elevated","signal":"single","spiking":["diplomatic"],"window":["diplomatic"],"change_1d":7.46,"slope_7d":0.56,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":49.0,"summary":"Libya's parliament ratified the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, prompting Greece and Cyprus to call it void and the EU to reaffirm solidarity with both; Turkey's foreign minister separately said Ankara does not oppose the Greece-Cyprus power cable but demands written notice of surveys. No new military incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new airspace, naval or buffer-zone incidents confirmed in the 24-hour window; the most recent reported Turkish airspace violations (four, by UAVs) were on 15 October.","z":-0.97,"mean":4.72,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new FIR or airspace violations reported today; last reported Turkish UAV incursions were 15 October."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No vessel-shadowing or NAVTEX-related naval incident reported today; the Eunomia 2026 exercise NAVTEX dispute near Kastellorizo (Meis) dates to 17-18 October."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"Cyprus and Greece both declared Libya's ratification of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum 'illegal, null and void', and EU Council President Costa and Commission President von der Leyen issued a joint solidarity statement with Greece and Cyprus.","z":1.84,"mean":4.62,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":true},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Libya's ratification advances a rival EEZ delimitation southeast of Crete, and Turkish FM Fidan said Ankara does not object to the Greece-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector cable but is demanding written notice of maritime surveys.","z":0.24,"mean":4.82,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar interference specifically attributed to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.18,"mean":3.14,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/cyprus-declares-turkey-libya-maritime-agreement-illegal","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus declares Turkey-Libya maritime agreement illegal","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/costa-von-der-leyen-offer-solidarity-to-greece-cyprus-after-turkey-libya-sea-deal","title":"Cyprus Mail: Costa, von der Leyen offer 'solidarity' to Greece, Cyprus after Turkey-Libya sea deal","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/libyas-parliament-approves-maritime-deal-with-turkiye-reverses-previous-rejection-228391","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: Libya's parliament approves maritime deal with T\u00fcrkiye, reverses previous rejection","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/united-cyprus-federation-fantasy-turkish-govt-ally-stresses/news","title":"Daily Sabah: United Cyprus federation 'fantasy,' Turkish govt ally stresses","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/21/fidan-says-turkey-has-no-objection-to-greece-cyprus-cable-demands-written-notice-for-surveys","title":"Greek City Times: Fidan Says Turkey Has No Objection to Greece-Cyprus Cable, Demands Written Notice for Surveys","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/21/turkey-hails-libya-deal-as-greece-faces-new-maritime-tensions","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Hails Libya Deal as Greece Faces New Maritime Tensions","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration data from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration data from https://www.google.com/url?q=https://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792656838233000&sa=E was reachable but its most recent complete entry is dated 10 October 2026 (military score 4.0, delta -1.0, band \"elevated\"); diplomatic, economic_info and ew_sigint scores for 10 October were truncated in the feed, so deltas above are computed against the last fully visible values (diplomatic 4, economic_info 4, ew_sigint 3, both from 9 October). Treat today's deltas with that caveat in mind.\n- The day's main development is Libya's House of Representatives voting (20 October) to repeal its own 2020 resolutions and ratify the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime boundary memorandum, which both Ankara and Tripoli frame as setting an EEZ border southeast of Crete; Greece, Cyprus and the EU call it void, consistent with the EU's unchanged 2019 position.\n- Separately, Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said T\u00fcrkiye has no objection in principle to the Great Sea Interconnector (Crete-Cyprus power cable) but insists on written notice of maritime surveys and restated Ankara's 12-nautical-mile territorial-waters position; no Greek or Cypriot response to this specific statement was found in available reporting.\n- Context, not scored today: a Greek NAVTEX for the multinational Eunomia 2026 exercise (live fire south of Kastellorizo/Meis on 19 October) was followed by a Turkish counter-notice from Antalya disputing which station has authority to issue warnings there; this NAVTEX dispute dates to 17-18 October, not the current 24-hour window, but the exercise area overlaps part of the planned GSI survey route.\n- MHP leader Devlet Bah\u00e7eli (a Turkish government ally, not a Turkish Cypriot official) called a united Cyprus federation \"a fantasy\" on 20 October and raised concern about reported proposals for UN administration of Varosha (Mara\u015f) and EU Commission oversight of Famagusta port; these proposals have not been confirmed by Nicosia.\n- A reported knife attack on a Turkish Cypriot man in Limassol (two Greek Cypriot suspects arrested) was not scored: Cyprus police attributed the motive to a case of mistaken identity over dog thefts, not ethnic or political tension, and no Turkish or Turkish Cypriot political reaction was found in reporting as of this writing.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-22","risk":47.97,"absolute":45.5,"z":0.31,"band":"elevated","signal":"converging","spiking":["diplomatic","economic_info"],"window":["diplomatic","economic_info"],"change_1d":3.08,"slope_7d":1.06,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Greece and the EU rejected the Libyan eastern parliament's 20 October ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, which Erdo\u011fan welcomed, reviving the Eastern Mediterranean EEZ and hydrocarbons dispute. In Cyprus, Turkish Cypriot leader Erhurman confirmed he rejected President Christodoulides' Varosha/Famagusta proposal, a setback for resuming substantive talks. No new military incidents specific to the last 24 hours were found in open sources.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No Hellenic MoD or Turkish MoD violation bulletin specific to 20-21 Oct was found in open-source search; scored at the recent routine baseline.","z":-0.92,"mean":4.69,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No newly reported FIR violations, interceptions or armed formations for 20-21 Oct found in open sources."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new NAVTEX, survey-vessel escort or shadowing incident for 20-21 Oct found in open sources."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"Libya's eastern parliament ratified the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum on 20 Oct; Greece's foreign ministry called it void, the EU's von der Leyen and Costa called it null and said it infringes third states' sovereign rights, and Erdo\u011fan publicly welcomed the vote on 21 Oct.","z":1.75,"mean":4.69,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":true},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"The ratified Turkey-Libya memorandum reasserts overlapping EEZ/continental-shelf claims affecting Greek hydrocarbon exploration near Crete, extending the dispute T\u00fcrkiye already raised over Chevron and HELLENiQ ENERGY licences.","z":1.52,"mean":4.86,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":true},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or emitter interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.14,"mean":3.1,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/cyprus-declares-turkey-libya-maritime-agreement-illegal","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus declares Turkey-Libya maritime agreement illegal","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/21/erhurman-confirms-rejection-of-christodoulides-varosha-proposal","title":"Cyprus Mail: Erhurman confirms rejection of Christodoulides' Varosha proposal","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/10/21/eu-greece-reject-turkey-libya-maritime-pact-as-ankara-defends-deal/","title":"Turkish Minute: EU, Greece reject Turkey-Libya maritime pact as Ankara defends deal","domain":"turkishminute.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.rua.gr/2026/10/21/turkiye-achieved-recognition-of-the-maritime-treaty-with-libya-athens-declared-a-violation-of-its-rights/","title":"Athens News: T\u00fcrkiye achieved recognition of the maritime treaty with Libya; Athens declared a violation of its rights","domain":"en.rua.gr","category":null}],"notes":"- Libya's Haftar-aligned eastern parliament ratified the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum on 20 Oct, reversing its own 2020 rejection; Greece and the EU call the memorandum void, while T\u00fcrkiye's foreign ministry says it has been in force since 2019.\n- In Cyprus, Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman confirmed on 20 Oct he rejected President Christodoulides' proposal to place Varosha under UN administration and Famagusta port under EU control, calling it unbalanced; he said talks need agreed methodology and confidence-building progress first.\n- No airspace, naval or EW/SIGINT incident specific to 20-21 Oct was located in open-source search; the military score reflects the recent routine baseline rather than a lull in the wider dispute.\n- Sourcing note: the EU's von der Leyen/Costa statement and T\u00fcrkiye's foreign ministry and presidential reactions are cited via secondary reporting (Turkish Minute); no primary EEAS/European Council press release dated to this window was located in search.\n- To watch: Greece's stated intent to take \"appropriate action\" over the Libya memorandum; any catch-up Hellenic MoD or Turkish MoD violation bulletins covering this window; the next Christodoulides-Erhurman meeting on Varosha/Famagusta.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-23","risk":47.89,"absolute":45.5,"z":0.3,"band":"elevated","signal":"converging","spiking":["diplomatic"],"window":["diplomatic","economic_info"],"change_1d":-0.08,"slope_7d":0.61,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":54.0,"summary":"Diplomatic and economic friction rose after Libya's House of Representatives ratified the 2019 T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum on 20 October, prompting an EU statement that it is \"null and void\" and a Turkish foreign ministry statement welcoming it, while the US State Department avoided addressing the memorandum's legality. Separately, Turkish FM Fidan's offer to accept written notice of Great Sea Interconnector seabed surveys drew a skeptical response in Cyprus, and President Christodoulides pressed the European Commission to revive talks on the EU's mutual-defence clause. No new Aegean airspace or naval incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Hellenic MoD-confirmed airspace, naval or buffer-zone incidents were found in reporting covering the past 24 hours; the Aegean exercise-NOTAM dispute remains unresolved from prior weeks.","z":-0.87,"mean":4.66,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No fresh Hellenic General Staff violations bulletin covering 22 October was located; the most recent confirmed report found (4 Turkish UAV incursions) dates to 15 October, predating this window."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No naval incidents, survey-vessel shadowing or buffer-zone confrontations were reported in the past 24 hours."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"EU High Representative Kallas declared Libya's 20 October ratification of the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum \"null and void\" and in violation of EU states' sovereign rights (21 Oct); T\u00fcrkiye's foreign ministry welcomed the ratification the same day it occurred, and Cyprus's Christodoulides asked von der Leyen to revive EU Article 42.7 mutual-defence talks (22 Oct).","z":1.66,"mean":4.76,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":true},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Turkish FM Fidan said Ankara would not object to Great Sea Interconnector seabed surveys between Crete and Cyprus if given written notice (21 Oct); Cyprus Mail's editorial board called this unlikely for Greece to accept since it could imply recognising Turkish continental-shelf claims (23 Oct), and the Libya-T\u00fcrkiye memorandum separately bears on Greek EEZ/hydrocarbon rights near Crete.","z":1.43,"mean":4.93,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.09,"mean":3.07,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/21/crete-cyprus-power-cable-diplomatic-opening-for-surveys-to-resume-without-confrontation-with-turkey/","title":"ProtoThema English: Crete-Cyprus power cable  -  diplomatic opening for surveys to resume without confrontation with Turkey","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/23/our-view-turkeys-gsi-concession-comes-with-a-catch","title":"Cyprus Mail: Our View  -  Turkey's GSI concession comes with a catch","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/22/christodoulides-demands-that-eu-resume-talks-on-mutual-defence-clause","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides demands that EU resume talks on mutual defence clause","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.mfa.gr/en/statement-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-eu-on-the-ratification-of-the-libya-turkiye-mou-by-libyas-house-of-representatives-21-10-2026/","title":"Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the ratification of the Libya-T\u00fcrkiye MoU by Libya's House of Representatives (21.10.2026)","domain":"mfa.gr","category":"official"},{"url":"https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/turkiye-hails-libyan-parliaments-approval-of-2019-maritime-memorandum-3230720","title":"T\u00fcrkiye Today: T\u00fcrkiye hails Libyan parliament's approval of 2019 maritime memorandum","domain":"turkiyetoday.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/21/turkey-libya-maritime-memorandum-greece-tensions/","title":"GreekCityTimes: Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum  -  Greece tensions","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/22/us-turkey-libya-maritime-deal/","title":"Greek Reporter: US Avoids Direct Criticism of Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal","domain":"greekreporter.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"The public calibration feed at","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- The public calibration feed at https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1792829551483000&sa=E had no entries newer than 10 October 2026 at the time of this run; today's scores were calibrated against that week's levels, the most recent available, rather than against a fresher published baseline.\n- The Libya-T\u00fcrkiye maritime memorandum story spans several days: ratification by Libya's House of Representatives and T\u00fcrkiye's welcoming statement both fall on 20 October; the EU's \"null and void\" statement and Greece's rejection followed on 21 October; the US State Department's comments, which avoided the legality question and were notably milder than its 2019-2020 statements, were reported on 22 October.\n- No new Hellenic MoD/GEETHA daily violations bulletin for the 22-23 October period could be located in available open-source reporting; this is noted as an absence of confirmed new activity rather than confirmation that none occurred.\n- Cypriot Energy Minister Damianos said on 15 October that a NAVTEX for the Crete-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector survey is expected before the end of October; this had not been issued as of this run.\n- No GNSS jamming/spoofing or radar-interference reports plausibly linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were found for the past 24 hours.\n- No manipulation attempts were identified in the sources reviewed for this assessment.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-24","risk":34.38,"absolute":39.0,"z":-0.58,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["diplomatic","economic_info"],"change_1d":-13.51,"slope_7d":0.0,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":39.0,"summary":"No new military incidents were confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours, while the Great Sea Interconnector cable project slipped further: Nexans said production will not resume before 2028 and Cyprus's regulator pushed completion to January 2031. Athens and Ankara signalled a possible compromise - written, coordinate-specific Turkish notice in exchange for unopposed Greek-authorised surveys - while the Cyprus settlement track continued calmly toward a 29 October UN envoy visit.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Hellenic MoD-reported airspace or naval violations were found for the past 24 hours; the Crete-Cyprus cable survey/NOTAM dispute remains unresolved short of any confirmed incident.","z":-0.83,"mean":4.62,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No fresh Turkish airspace/FIR violation figures for 22-23 October were located; the most recent reported tallies date to early October."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"The French-flagged survey vessel Abeille Marengo left Naples on 23 October for Heraklion (due 27 October) ahead of an expected Greek NAVTEX; no shadowing or NAVTEX clash was reported."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Greek FM Gerapetritis said only Athens' authorisation will be sought for the GSI surveys and sees no sign Turkey will react forcefully, per reporting on his 21 October remarks; the Christodoulides-Erhurman track continues toward a 29 October UN envoy visit.","z":-1.1,"mean":4.83,"std":0.75,"delta":-2.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Nexans CEO Julien Hueber said GSI cable production will not resume before 2028, and Cyprus regulator CERA moved completion to January 2031 (from 2030), with costs now above EUR 1.9bn and Cyprus's EUR 25m tranche still withheld pending a NAVTEX (Greek City Times, 24 Oct).","z":0.0,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference reports linked to Greece, Cyprus or Turkiye were found in the past 24 hours; scored at the routine default.","z":-0.05,"mean":3.03,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/24/greece-cyprus-cable-delay-2031-nexans-2028/","title":"Greek City Times: Greece-Cyprus Cable Slips Again as Nexans Eyes 2028 Restart and 2031 Completion","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/21/turkeys-fidan-no-objection-to-gsi-surveys-but-send-us-a-written-notification","title":"Cyprus Mail: Turkey's Fidan: No Objection to GSI Surveys, But Send Us a Written Notification","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/21/crete-cyprus-power-cable-diplomatic-opening-for-surveys-to-resume-without-confrontation-with-turkey/","title":"Protothema: Crete-Cyprus Power Cable: Diplomatic Opening for Surveys to Resume Without Confrontation With Turkey","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/20/christodoulides-and-erhurman-to-meet-again-next-week-ahead-of-un-envoys-visit","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides and Erhurman to Meet Again Next Week Ahead of UN Envoy's Visit","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.yenibakishaber.com/limasolda-kibrisli-turk-gence-vahsi-saldiri","title":"Yeni Bakis Haber: Savage Attack on a Turkish Cypriot Young Man in Limassol (Turkish)","domain":"yenibakishaber.com","category":null}],"notes":null,"retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-25","risk":55.4,"absolute":49.0,"z":0.8,"band":"tense","signal":"single","spiking":["diplomatic"],"window":["diplomatic"],"change_1d":21.02,"slope_7d":1.35,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":56.0,"summary":"Diplomatic tension stayed elevated as Greece pressed its rejection of the ratified Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum at the UN Security Council with EU backing, while Greek and Turkish authorities traded NAVTEX notices over a Saudi Arabia-Greece data-cable survey off Crete and Rhodes. No new confirmed airspace or naval incident was reported in the past 24 hours, and a Cyprus-Greece-France-Italy naval exercise south of Cyprus concluded without incident.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new confirmed airspace or naval incident in the past 24 hours; the quadrilateral EUNOMIA-7/2026 exercise south of Cyprus concluded Thursday without incident.","z":0.6,"mean":4.55,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Most recent confirmed figure is 17 Turkish violations (six F-16s, eight UAVs, no dogfights) reported by the Hellenic National Defence General Staff for 21 Oct; no fresher count was found for today."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"The Cyprus-Greece-France-Italy EUNOMIA-7/2026 exercise concluded south of Cyprus on 22 Oct, results announced 24 Oct; dueling Turkish and Greek NAVTEX notices continued over a cable survey off Crete and Rhodes."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Greece pressed its rejection of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum at the UN Security Council and in EU channels, with Brussels backing Athens and options including sanctions on Libya and extending Greek territorial waters under review; Turkish officials hailed the ratification as vindicating Ankara's claims.","z":1.56,"mean":4.83,"std":0.75,"delta":2.0,"spike":true},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"T\u00fcrkiye and Greece issued dueling NAVTEX notices over a survey for the Saudi Arabia-Greece East to Med Data Corridor cable off Crete and Rhodes, each asserting continental-shelf jurisdiction, while a separate vessel awaits NAVTEX to resume Cyprus-Crete power-cable surveys.","z":1.33,"mean":5.0,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No jamming, spoofing or other interference incident linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.mfa.gr/en/announcement-by-the-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-on-the-decision-of-the-libyan-house-of-representatives-concerning-the-turkish-libyan-memorandum-20-10-2026/","title":"Hellenic Republic MFA: Announcement on the decision of the Libyan House of Representatives concerning the Turkish-Libyan memorandum (20.10.2026)","domain":"mfa.gr","category":"official"},{"url":"https://www.formedia.gr/2026/10/24/tourkolivyko-mnimonio-oi-epomenes-kiniseis-tis-athinas/","title":"FORMedia: \u03a4\u03bf\u03c5\u03c1\u03ba\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03b2\u03c5\u03ba\u03cc \u03bc\u03bd\u03b7\u03bc\u03cc\u03bd\u03b9\u03bf: \u039f\u03b9 \u03b5\u03c0\u03cc\u03bc\u03b5\u03bd\u03b5\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b9\u03bd\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u0391\u03b8\u03ae\u03bd\u03b1\u03c2 (Greek)","domain":"formedia.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkiye-hails-libya-maritime-deal-as-eu-greece-object/news","title":"Daily Sabah: T\u00fcrkiye hails Libya maritime deal as EU, Greece object","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/24/cyprus-greece-france-and-italy-conclude-joint-naval-exercise","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus, Greece, France and Italy conclude joint naval exercise","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/turkey-presses-ahead-with-new-navtex-over-emc-cable-linking-saudi-arabia-and-greece/","title":"ProtoThema English: Turkey presses ahead with new NAVTEX over EMC cable linking Saudi Arabia and Greece","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/cable-survey-vessel-sails-from-naples-due-in-heraklion-on-tuesday-as-navtex-awaited/","title":"ProtoThema English: Cable survey vessel sails from Naples, due in Heraklion on Tuesday as NAVTEX awaited","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.gr/2026/10/21/diplomatia/aigaio-17-tourkikes-paraviaseis-sti-skia-ton-ekselikseon-me-to-tourkolivyko-mnimonio/","title":"To Vima: \u0391\u03b9\u03b3\u03b1\u03af\u03bf: 17 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03c1\u03ba\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03c0\u03b1\u03c1\u03b1\u03b2\u03b9\u03ac\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b7 \u03c3\u03ba\u03b9\u03ac \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b5\u03be\u03b5\u03bb\u03af\u03be\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03bf \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03c1\u03ba\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03b2\u03c5\u03ba\u03cc \u03bc\u03bd\u03b7\u03bc\u03cc\u03bd\u03b9\u03bf (Greek)","domain":"tovima.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/22/greece-records-over-640-turkish-airspace-violations-in-9-months","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Records Over 640 Turkish Airspace Violations in 9 Months","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The Turkey-Libya memorandum dispute (ratified by Libya's House of Representatives on 20 Oct) continues to dominate the diplomatic track; Greek diplomatic sources said decisions on countermeasures, including a possible extension of Greek territorial waters south of Crete, \"will not be taken under the pressure of the moment\" (reported 24 Oct).\n- Two separate NAVTEX disputes are running in parallel: one over the Great Sea Interconnector (Cyprus-Crete power cable) survey, still pending a NAVTEX expected in early November, and one over the Saudi Arabia-Greece data cable survey off Crete and Rhodes, active since 21 Oct; each side's notices assert its own continental-shelf claim.\n- Greek reporting (via AMNA) puts confirmed Turkish airspace violations at 643 for January-September 2026, against 225 for all of 2025  -  cited here as trend context, not scored for today.\n- No fresher Hellenic National Defence General Staff daily violations report was found for the 22-24 October window; the most recent confirmed figure (17 violations, 21 Oct) carries into today's military score.\n- What to watch: the promised Turkish NAVTEX for the Great Sea Interconnector survey (expected first ten days of November) and any Greek counter-NAVTEX; further EU and UN steps on the Turkey-Libya memorandum dispute.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-26","risk":34.44,"absolute":39.0,"z":-0.57,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["diplomatic"],"change_1d":-20.96,"slope_7d":-0.06,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":38.0,"summary":"Reporting over the past day centred on the Great Sea Interconnector cable dispute and the aftermath of Libya's ratification of its 2019 maritime memorandum with T\u00fcrkiye, alongside routine Turkish drone-related airspace activity over the Aegean. No naval, buffer-zone or GNSS-interference incidents were reported, keeping overall tension at a routine-to-notable level consistent with recent weeks.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Hellenic data cited 6 airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR rule infringements by 7 Turkish UAVs on 24 Oct, reported 25 Oct; no naval incidents noted.","z":-0.74,"mean":4.55,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"7 Turkish UAVs caused 6 national airspace violations and 11 FIR infringements over the NE, central and SE Aegean on 24 Oct (reported 25 Oct)  -  consistent with the recurring drone pattern of recent weeks."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No naval movements, NAVTEX-linked incidents or vessel-shadowing were reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours; scored at the routine baseline."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Cypriot ministers reiterated the standing commitment to resuming Cyprus talks from Crans-Montana, and former PM Karamanlis publicly rejected any Turkish notification requirement for the Cyprus cable; no summons or new ministerial warnings.","z":-1.2,"mean":4.9,"std":0.75,"delta":-2.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey-notification dispute continued, with an ELIAMEP analyst warning T\u00fcrkiye could use the ratified T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum as a precedent against Cyprus's EEZ; no sabotage, cyberattack or sanctions reported.","z":-0.1,"mean":5.07,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, radar or communications interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://flight.com.gr/aegean-tourkika-uav-paraviaseis-24-10-2026/","title":"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://flight.com.gr&source=gmail&ust=1793092243008000&sa=E: Aegean  -  Turkish UAV violations, 24 October 2026 (Greek)","domain":"flight.com.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/25/government-reiterates-commitment-to-cyprus-talks","title":"Cyprus Mail: Government reiterates commitment to Cyprus talks","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/25/turkey-could-use-libya-maritime-deal-as-precedent-against-cyprus-expert-warns","title":"Cyprus Mail: Turkey could use Libya maritime deal as precedent against Cyprus, expert warns","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/26/former-greek-pm-rejects-turkish-permit-demand-for-cyprus-cable","title":"Greek City Times: Former Greek PM Rejects Turkish Permit Demand for Cyprus Cable","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/21/hakan-fidan-greece-cyprus-cable","title":"Greek City Times: Fidan Says Turkey Has No Objection to Greece-Cyprus Cable, Demands Written Notice for Surveys","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.mfa.gr/en/announcement-by-the-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-on-the-decision-of-the-libyan-house-of-representatives-concerning-the-turkish-libyan-memorandum-20-10-2026/","title":"Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Announcement on the decision of the Libyan House of Representatives concerning the Turkish-Libyan memorandum","domain":"mfa.gr","category":"official"}],"notes":"- Calibration: the index's published history (api/data) ends 2026-10-13, with no entries for 14-25 Oct; today's deltas are measured against the 13 Oct scores rather than a same-week baseline.\n- The 24 Oct UAV-violation count was reported by Greek outlets on 25 Oct citing Hellenic defence data; it is scored as the most recent confirmed military activity, one day before this assessment date.\n- Libya's parliament ratified the 2019 T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum on 20 Oct; Greece and the EU rejected it as without legal effect on third states. This is background and is not scored as a new event today.\n- No Hellenic MoD daily bulletin, Turkish MoD weekly briefing, Turkish-Cypriot-administration statement, or buffer-zone incident specific to 25-26 Oct was found; T\u00fcrkiye's position on the cable dispute is represented via Foreign Minister Fidan's 21 Oct interview with Ta Nea.\n- No GNSS interference, naval shadowing, or armed-formation activity was found in today's reporting; all four categories remain at or near routine levels.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-28","risk":36.32,"absolute":40.0,"z":-0.46,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":1.88,"slope_7d":-1.94,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":40.0,"summary":"Diplomatic friction centred on the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, which Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Bahrain, the UAE and the EU called legally void at the UN while President Erdogan defended it, and on a new Turkish marine brigade at Iskenderun that Greek reporting linked to operations around Cyprus. Military and economic indicators otherwise stayed close to the recent range, with no new airspace-violation counts, GNSS interference or infrastructure incidents confirmed in the 24-hour window.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Turkey presented colours for a new marine brigade at Iskenderun and a French vessel reached Crete for cable surveys, but no new violation counts or incidents were confirmed in the window.","z":-0.76,"mean":4.57,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No new Athens or Nicosia FIR violation counts were reported in the 24-hour window; the last confirmed figures predate mid-October."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Turkey presented colours for its 2nd Amphibious Marine Brigade at Iskenderun, linked by Greek reporting to operations \"around Cyprus\"; a French survey vessel reached Heraklion for Great Sea Interconnector surveys, still awaiting NAVTEX."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE joined Greece, Cyprus and the EU in calling the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum void, which President Erdogan defended; Turkey's defence minister also criticised Nicosia over the Turkish Cypriots' situation.","z":0.14,"mean":4.89,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"A French-flagged vessel reached Crete to begin Great Sea Interconnector cable surveys, still pending NAVTEX; Turkey's energy minister cited possible new exploration deals by year-end, without reference to Greek or Cypriot waters.","z":-1.53,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals interference was reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the window.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/27/leaders-take-vow-of-silence-on-cyprus-problem-substance-ahead-of-holguin-visit","title":"Cyprus Mail: Leaders take vow of silence on Cyprus problem substance ahead of Holguin visit","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/27/turkey-may-make-acquisitions-sign-deals-for-further-hydrocarbon-exploration-by-year-end","title":"Cyprus Mail (Reuters): Turkey may make acquisitions, sign deals for further hydrocarbon exploration by year-end","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":"wire"},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/28/turkey-forms-new-marine-brigade-as-greece-tests-new-drone-systems/","title":"Greek City Times: Turkey Forms New Marine Brigade as Greece Tests New Drone Systems","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/28/missiles-israel-turkish-media/","title":"Greek City Times: 'Missiles from Israel, Firings from Greece': Turkish Media Reacts to Joint Exercise North of Crete","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/26/invalid-baseless-and-contrary-to-international-law-greece-eu-egypt-cyprus-bahrain-and-uae-issue-joint-statement-at-un-on-turkey-libya-maritime-deal/","title":"ProtoThema English: Invalid, baseless and contrary to international law: Greece, EU, Egypt, Cyprus, Bahrain and UAE issue joint statement at UN on Turkey-Libya maritime deal","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/survey-ship-sails-greece-cyprus-cable-route-setting-test-turkey","title":"iefimerida: Survey Ship Sails for Greece-Cyprus Cable Route, Setting Up a Test for Turkey","domain":"iefimerida.gr","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org","title":"Calibration data from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration data from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org&source=gmail&ust=1793265083616000&sa=E was reachable, but its most recent published entry was 2026-10-14; scores were set from the rubric and anchors, informed by that two-week-old baseline rather than a same-week trend.\n- Turkish media (CNN Turk, Aksam, Star) reacted critically on 28 October to a Greek-Israeli naval drill north of Crete with live SPIKE missile firings and the sinking of the decommissioned frigate Bouboulina; the drill itself took place around 21 October, outside this window, and is noted here only as today's media reaction.\n- Turkey's new Iskenderun-based marine brigade and its stated link to operations \"around Cyprus\" is reported only in Greek media citing the Athens-Macedonian News Agency; no Turkish-language primary source describing it in those terms was found.\n- Cyprus's president and the Turkish Cypriot leader agreed on 27 October to make no further statements on Cyprus-problem substance ahead of a visit by UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin, a procedural, de-escalatory step.\n- Watch: Holguin's visit to Cyprus; the NAVTEX expected in early November for the Great Sea Interconnector survey and any Turkish response, given Turkey halted a similar survey by sending warships in 2024; further reaction to the Turkey-Libya memorandum.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-29","risk":41.39,"absolute":42.5,"z":-0.14,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":5.07,"slope_7d":-1.1,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":44.0,"summary":"The month's running dispute over Aegean seabed-survey NAVTEX notices sharpened: Greece's Heraklion station declared a Turkish notice over a cable survey southeast of Crete \"null and void\" on 27 October, and Turkey's Antalya station reasserted its claim on 28 October. No new airspace, naval or interference incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours, and diplomatic contacts stayed at routine, technical level.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"NAVTEX clash over the KOBI RUEGG seabed survey off Crete continued; no new airspace or naval incident was confirmed (Greek City Times, ToVima).","z":0.57,"mean":4.57,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No Athens FIR or national-airspace violations were reported by Greek or Turkish sources in the past 24 hours."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Greece's Heraklion station called Turkey's NAVTEX \"null and void\" and extended its own warning to 6 Nov; Turkey's Antalya station reissued its notice on 28 Oct (Greek City Times)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Exchange stayed at the technical NAVTEX level; no new ministerial statements on the Aegean or Cyprus talks were found in the window.","z":-1.24,"mean":4.93,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"EEZ/continental-shelf dispute over the EMC telecom-cable survey intensified; the separate Great Sea Interconnector survey (vessel Abeille Marengo, Heraklion since 27 Oct) still awaits its own NAVTEX, expected only in early November (Keep Talking Greece, Cyprus Mail).","z":-0.2,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or radar/communications interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/29/navtex-southeast-of-crete","title":"Greek City Times: Greece and Turkey Trade NAVTEX Over Cable Survey Off Crete","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2026/10/27/csi-electricity-cable-crete-cyprus-vessel-survey-greece/","title":"Keep Talking Greece: French-flagged vessel in Crete to start surveys for GSI power cables","domain":"keeptalkinggreece.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/cable-survey-vessel-sails-from-naples-due-in-heraklion-on-tuesday-as-navtex-awaited/","title":"ProtoThema English: Cable survey vessel sails from Naples due in Heraklion on Tuesday as NAVTEX awaited","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/turkey-presses-ahead-with-new-navtex-over-emc-cable-linking-saudi-arabia-and-greece/","title":"ProtoThema English: Turkey presses ahead with new NAVTEX over EMC cable linking Saudi Arabia and Greece","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/greece-challenges-turkish-navtex-sets-new-survey-dates","title":"ToVima: Greece Challenges Turkish NAVTEX, Sets New Survey Dates","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/french-firm-seeks-to-resume-disputed-eastern-mediterranean-cable-surveys-228188","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: French firm seeks to resume disputed eastern Mediterranean cable surveys","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/15/damianos-interconnector-navtex-will-be-issued-by-end-of-month","title":"Cyprus Mail: Great Sea Interconnector navtex will be issued by end of month","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration data from","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- The NAVTEX clash reported today concerns the KOBI RUEGG survey for the East to Med Data Corridor (EMC) telecom cable linking Saudi Arabia to Greece, not the higher-profile Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) power cable to Cyprus, whose own NAVTEX is a separate, still-pending matter.\n- The French-flagged Abeille Marengo reached Heraklion on 27 October to prepare for GSI seabed surveys; Greek officials say the NAVTEX authorising that work is expected only in the first ten days of November, so no GSI survey activity has started yet.\n- This is the latest in a month-long pattern of competing NAVTEX notices over Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean seabed surveys (the Kastellorizo live-fire area in mid-October, the EMC cable since 20 October, and the pending GSI route); none has produced a reported naval standoff this month.\n- No Hellenic National Defence General Staff daily violations bulletin for 27-28 October could be located in open sources at the time of writing; its absence is treated as a data gap, not as confirmation of zero violations.\n- Calibration data from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1793351470796000&sa=E showed no published entries between 17 and 28 October; today's deltas are measured against the 17 October scores, the most recent available.\n- Watch: whether Turkey issues a competing NAVTEX once Greece's own notice for the GSI survey is published (expected around 10 November), which has triggered sharper exchanges in each prior instance this month.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-30","risk":34.12,"absolute":39.0,"z":-0.61,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-7.27,"slope_7d":-0.96,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":37.0,"summary":"No new military incidents were confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the 24 hours to 30 October. Diplomatic attention centred on UN envoy Maria Angela Holgu\u00edn's visit to Cyprus, after Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erh\u00fcrman publicly rejected President Christodoulides' Varosha/Famagusta-port proposal and both leaders agreed to pause public comment on substance. The Great Sea Interconnector cable survey remains the main economic friction point, still awaiting a NAVTEX T\u00fcrkiye says must follow written notification.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No new airspace or naval incidents were identified in Greek, Turkish or Cypriot reporting for the period; scored at the routine background level.","z":-0.81,"mean":4.61,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No Hellenic National Defence General Staff violations bulletin or Turkish exercise NAVTEX was found for this date, shortly after the 28 Oct and 29 Oct national anniversaries."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No vessel-shadowing or exercise-NAVTEX reports found; naval attention stays on the Great Sea Interconnector survey corridor off Kasos, where a NAVTEX is awaited (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://en.protothema.gr&source=gmail&ust=1793438129782000&sa=E, 23 Oct)."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Christodoulides and Erh\u00fcrman agreed to make no further statements on Cyprus-problem substance ahead of UN envoy Holgu\u00edn's visit, after Erh\u00fcrman's public rejection of Christodoulides' Varosha/Famagusta-port proposal (Cyprus Mail, 27 Oct; H\u00fcrriyet Daily News, 21 Oct).","z":-1.19,"mean":4.89,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey remains stalled pending a NAVTEX that T\u00fcrkiye says must follow written notification; Christodoulides said the file is being handled \"away from the public eye\" (Cyprus Mail, 28 Oct).","z":-0.2,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference incidents attributable to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the period; scored at the routine default.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/27/leaders-take-vow-of-silence-on-cyprus-problem-substance-ahead-of-holguin-visit","title":"Cyprus Mail: Leaders take vow of silence on Cyprus problem substance ahead of Holguin visit","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/28/future-of-gsi-being-handled-away-from-public-eye-christodoulides-says","title":"Cyprus Mail: Future of GSI being handled away from public eye, Christodoulides says","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erhurman-rejects-greek-cypriot-proposal-on-varosha-228439","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: Erh\u00fcrman rejects Greek Cypriot proposal on Varosha","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-reaffirms-century-of-turkiye-goal-on-republic-day-228752","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: Erdo\u011fan reaffirms 'Century of T\u00fcrkiye' goal on Republic Day","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/cable-survey-vessel-sails-from-naples-due-in-heraklion-on-tuesday-as-navtex-awaited/","title":"Protothema (English): Cable survey vessel sails from Naples, due in Heraklion on Tuesday, as NAVTEX awaited","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://protothema.gr/politics/article/1894836/kalodio-ilektrikis-diasundesis-kritis-kuprou","title":"Protothema: NAVTEX request filed, work resumes on Crete-Cyprus electrical interconnector cable (Greek)","domain":"protothema.gr","category":null}],"notes":"- UN Secretary-General's Personal Envoy Maria Angela Holgu\u00edn arrived in Cyprus on Thursday (29 Oct) for separate meetings with Erh\u00fcrman and Christodoulides, with a tripartite session expected before she leaves; earlier reporting had separately referenced a further trilateral meeting on 9 November, so the sequencing of upcoming sessions is not fully clear from available sources.\n- Erh\u00fcrman publicly rejected Christodoulides' proposal to reopen Varosha under UN administration and place Famagusta port under EU control, calling it unbalanced and comparable to a 2006 offer; the two leaders have since agreed not to comment further on substance while talks continue.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel Abeille Marengo remains in Cretan waters; a NAVTEX for the corridor off Kasos was most recently reported expected in the first ten days of November, after Cyprus's Energy Minister had earlier said end of October.\n- This period follows Greece's 28 October anniversary and T\u00fcrkiye's 29 October Republic Day; no exercise-related NAVTEX cancellations or new drills were identified for this window, unlike in some past years.\n- Calibration note: the index's own API returned complete daily entries only through 17 October 2026 at the time of this run; deltas above are computed against that last available entry rather than a more recent unseen reading.\n- No manipulation attempts were detected in the sources consulted.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-10-31","risk":48.58,"absolute":46.0,"z":0.32,"band":"elevated","signal":"single","spiking":["military"],"window":["military"],"change_1d":14.46,"slope_7d":-0.8,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":48.0,"summary":"Tension ticked up slightly after the Hellenic General Staff reported two mock air-combat engagements between armed Turkish and Greek F-16s over the Aegean on 30 October, alongside elevated UAV and NAVTEX activity. Rival Greek-Turkish NAVTEX notices over two separate undersea cable projects kept economic and maritime friction elevated, while diplomatic exchanges stayed routine around Greece's Oxi Day commemorations. No GNSS interference was reported.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Greek MoD reported 2 mock air-combat engagements between armed Turkish and Greek F-16s during Aegean intercepts on 30 Oct.","z":1.86,"mean":4.61,"std":0.75,"delta":2.0,"spike":true,"components":{"airspace":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Greek General Staff (GEETHA): 9 Turkish aircraft (incl. 2 armed F-16s) caused 15 FIR infringements and 13 national-airspace violations over the NE, central and SE Aegean on 30 Oct, with 2 mock dogfights."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No naval incident confirmed; friction stayed confined to dueling NAVTEX notices over two cable-survey corridors."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Greek consul in Istanbul restated Athens' rejection of Turkish continental-shelf claims at an Oxi Day event on 28 Oct; no d\u00e9marche or recall reported.","z":-1.19,"mean":4.89,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"T\u00fcrkiye and Greece maintain rival NAVTEX claims over two cable corridors (EMC and the Crete-Cyprus GSI); Cyprus's GSI survey NAVTEX missed its end-of-October target.","z":-0.2,"mean":5.15,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.newsit.gr/ellada/emplokes-pano-apo-to-aigaio-me-oplismena-tourkika-f-16-i-tourkia-ekane-13-paraviaseis-kai-15-paravaseis/4811275/","title":"Newsit.gr: Engagements over the Aegean with armed Turkish F-16s - 13 violations, 15 infringements (Greek)","domain":"newsit.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/29/greeces-papastavrou-says-gsi-is-proceeding-with-a-plan","title":"Cyprus Mail: Greece's Papastavrou says GSI is 'proceeding with a plan'","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/girite-yanasti-kablo-projesinde-gozler-fransiz-gemisinde-43357377","title":"H\u00fcrriyet: Docked at Crete, eyes on the French ship in the cable project (Turkish)","domain":"hurriyet.com.tr","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/23/turkey-presses-ahead-with-new-navtex-over-emc-cable-linking-saudi-arabia-and-greece/","title":"ProtoThema English: Turkey presses ahead with new NAVTEX over EMC cable linking Saudi Arabia and Greece","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/29/greek-consul-rejects-turkish-aegean-claims-at-istanbul-oxi-day-event","title":"Greek City Times: Greek Consul Rejects Turkish Aegean Claims at Istanbul Oxi Day Event","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.mfa.gr/anakoinosi-ypourgeiou-exoterikon-schetika-me-tin-apofasi-tis-voulis-ton-antiprosopon-tis-livyis-gia-to-tourkolivyko-mnimonio-20-10-2026/","title":"Greek MFA: Announcement on the decision of Libya's House of Representatives on the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya memorandum (Greek)","domain":"mfa.gr","category":"official"}],"notes":"- The 30 Oct GEETHA report is the first same-day report of mock air-combat engagements in recent days; prior daily reports this week recorded drone and transport-aircraft incursions without engagements.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector (Crete-Cyprus) survey NAVTEX, which Cyprus's energy minister said on 15 Oct would be issued \"by end of October,\" has slipped; officials now expect it in early November.\n- A separate NAVTEX dispute concerns the EMC telecommunications cable (Saudi Arabia-Greece); T\u00fcrkiye's NAVTEX 1032/26 and 1042/26 and Greece's counter-NAVTEX HA61-1337/26 and HA67-1343/26 both covered the period to 30 Oct without a reported incident.\n- Greece's Oxi Day commemorations (28 Oct) were the occasion for its latest public restatement of its EEZ/continental-shelf position, delivered by its Istanbul consul; no corresponding Turkish rebuttal was found for this window.\n- No open-source reporting was found of GPS/GNSS jamming or spoofing attributable to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye in the past 24 hours.\n- Calibration note: the public API's most recent published entry is dated 19 October 2026; today's deltas are computed against that figure, which is 11 days old.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-01","risk":48.6,"absolute":46.0,"z":0.33,"band":"elevated","signal":"single","spiking":["military"],"window":["military"],"change_1d":0.02,"slope_7d":2.41,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":47.0,"summary":"Military tension ticked up after Greece's defence staff reported two armed Turkish F-16s that refused to leave Greek-controlled airspace east of Rhodes on 30 October, prompting intercept engagements alongside a wave of UAV airspace violations. Diplomatic and economic tracks held close to their recent course: UN envoy Mar\u00eda \u00c1ngela Holgu\u00edn voiced guarded optimism on Cyprus talks, while the Greek-Turkish NAVTEX dispute over a Crete cable survey stayed unresolved with no new incident overnight.","categories":{"military":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"HNDGS reported two armed Turkish F-16s refused to leave Greek-controlled airspace east of Rhodes on 30 Oct, prompting two Greek intercept engagements, among nine Turkish aircraft active that day.","z":1.81,"mean":4.64,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":true,"components":{"airspace":{"score":6.0,"justification":"Greek defence staff logged 13 national-airspace and 15 Athens FIR violations on 30 Oct, mostly by UAVs, plus the armed F-16 intercepts; no Turkish MoD statement on the sorties was found."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new naval shadowing reported; the Bahamas-flagged survey vessel Kobi Ruegg continued its Crete cable survey under rival Greek and Turkish NAVTEX notices issued 27-28 Oct."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"UN envoy Holgu\u00edn said she is pushing for an informal five-party Cyprus meeting before end-2026 after separate talks with Christodoulides and Erh\u00fcrman, who reaffirmed close coordination with T\u00fcrkiye at the Ankara Turkic States summit.","z":-1.14,"mean":4.86,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Greek and Turkish NAVTEX notices over the Kobi Ruegg cable survey off Crete remain in open dispute, each side calling the other's warning void or unauthorised, unchanged from recent days.","z":-0.15,"mean":5.11,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or other interference incidents plausibly linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were found in reporting for this period.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/31/greek-jets-intercept-armed-turkish-f-16s-east-of-rhodes","title":"Greek City Times: Greek Jets Intercept Armed Turkish F-16s East of Rhodes","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/29/navtex-southeast-of-crete","title":"Greek City Times: Greece and Turkey Trade NAVTEX Over Cable Survey Off Crete","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/30/un-envoy-pushes-for-renewed-cyprus-talks-before-end-of-2026","title":"Euronews: UN envoy pushes for renewed Cyprus talks before end of 2026","domain":"euronews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/27/christodoulides-and-erhurman-to-meet-ahead-of-holguin-visit","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides and Erhurman to meet ahead of Holguin visit","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.trtworld.com/article/84597c6c6106","title":"TRT World: Turkish Cypriot president pledges close cooperation with T\u00fcrkiye for lasting Cyprus settlement","domain":"trtworld.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/10/15/damianos-interconnector-navtex-will-be-issued-by-end-of-month","title":"Cyprus Mail: Great Sea Interconnector navtex will be issued by end of month","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"The public calibration feed at","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- This email supersedes an earlier 2026-11-01 submission sent minutes prior, which had a YAML indentation error under military.naval; scores and content are unchanged, only the formatting is corrected.\n- The public calibration feed at https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1793610555054000&sa=E runs only through 19 October; no entries were available for 20-31 October, so today's deltas are measured against the 19 Oct baseline (military 5, diplomatic 4, economic_info 5, ew_sigint 3) rather than the prior day, and may understate or overstate the true day-on-day change.\n- The 30 October Rhodes intercept account comes solely from the Hellenic National Defence General Staff, relayed via Greek media; no Turkish Ministry of National Defence statement on these sorties was found in open-source reporting, so it is treated as a Greek-reported claim.\n- UN envoy Holgu\u00edn is seeking an informal five-party conference on Cyprus before the end of 2026; Christodoulides and Erh\u00fcrman have held direct talks, but no outcome has been made public.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector's own survey NAVTEX (for the Abeille Marengo) was reported as pending in late October and had not yet been confirmed issued as of this reading; the Kobi Ruegg survey covers a separate, related subsea cable (EMC data link) off Crete.\n- No EW/SIGINT incidents attributable to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were identified for this period.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-02","risk":39.32,"absolute":41.5,"z":-0.27,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":["military"],"change_1d":-9.28,"slope_7d":1.46,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":39.0,"summary":"Diplomatic friction over the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum carried into the window, as Egypt's and Israel's ambassadors to Athens publicly rejected the deal days after a Greece-T\u00fcrkiye clash at the UN Security Council. No new Aegean airspace or naval incidents were confirmed, and the Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel remained stalled in Heraklion awaiting a NAVTEX.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Athens or Nicosia FIR violations or naval incidents were confirmed for 1-2 November; the latest Hellenic General Staff report concerns 30 October.","z":-0.9,"mean":4.68,"std":0.75,"delta":-2.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No fresh airspace activity reported for 1-2 November; the last confirmed figures (30 October) were nine Turkish aircraft and two F-16 engagements east of Rhodes."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Hellenic Navy NAVTEX notices activate the Kriti and Nisides Karavia firing areas for exercises on 2-5 November; the Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel Abeille Marengo remains at anchor in Heraklion awaiting a NAVTEX."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Egypt's and Israel's ambassadors to Greece both publicly rejected the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, reinforcing Athens' position after the 29 October Greece-T\u00fcrkiye clash at the UN Security Council.","z":0.24,"mean":4.82,"std":0.76,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel remains stalled in Heraklion with no NAVTEX issued as of 2 November, while a separate Hellenic Navy-licensed fibre-optic cable survey continues in the Greek EEZ southeast of Crete.","z":-0.1,"mean":5.07,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or communications-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/315146/turkey-libya-maritime-deal-egypts-ambassador-issues-clear-rejection/","title":"Parapolitika: Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal: Egypt's Ambassador Issues Clear Rejection","domain":"en.parapolitika.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/11/01/israeli-ambassador-rejects-turkey-libya-maritime-deal-backs-greece/","title":"Greek City Times: Israeli Ambassador Rejects Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal, Backs Greece","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/turkiye-rebuts-mitsotakis-at-un-security-council-not-a-maritime-delimitation-court-3231330","title":"T\u00fcrkiye Today: T\u00fcrkiye rebuts Mitsotakis at UN: 'Security Council not a maritime delimitation court'","domain":"turkiyetoday.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-rejects-greek-claims-over-libya-deal-at-un-228806","title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: T\u00fcrkiye rejects Greek claims over Libya deal at UN","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/31/greek-jets-intercept-armed-turkish-f-16s-east-of-rhodes","title":"Greek City Times: Greek Jets Intercept Armed Turkish F-16s East of Rhodes","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/315403/greece-cyprus-electrical-interconnection-surveys-set-to-focus-on-kasos/","title":"Parapolitika: Greece-Cyprus Electrical Interconnection: Surveys Set to Focus on Kasos","domain":"en.parapolitika.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://hnhs.gr/en/category/navtex-messages/","title":"Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service: NAVTEX Messages","domain":"hnhs.gr","category":"official"},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/christodoulides-brings-three-proposals-to-talks-with-erhurman","title":"TA NEA (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://tovima.com&source=gmail&ust=1793697140213000&sa=E): Christodoulides Brings Three Proposals To Talks With Erhurman","domain":"tovima.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The most recent confirmed military incident  -  two armed Turkish F-16s intercepted and 13 Greek national-airspace violations east of Rhodes, per the Hellenic National Defence General Staff  -  concerns 30 October; no comparable report was found for 1-2 November, so the military score reflects that last confirmed level.\n- The Greece-T\u00fcrkiye clash at the UN Security Council over the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum (PM Mitsotakis vs. Turkish Permanent Representative Ahmet Y\u0131ld\u0131z) took place on 29 October; this window's diplomatic activity (the Egyptian and Israeli ambassadors' statements) is follow-on reaction rather than a new flashpoint.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel Abeille Marengo has waited in Heraklion since 27 October for a NAVTEX covering the Kasos survey area; Turkish frigates halted a comparable Kasos-area survey in 2024, and analysts cited by Greek media say the Turkey-Libya memorandum could cause a further delay.\n- Cyprus settlement talks continue on three tracks (substance, methodology, confidence-building); Christodoulides, Erh\u00fcrman and UN envoy Holguin are due to meet trilaterally on 9 November.\n- Calibration note: the published index's most recent entry is 21 October 2026; no entries were available for 22 October-1 November, so today's deltas are measured against that reading.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-04","risk":36.41,"absolute":40.0,"z":-0.45,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-2.91,"slope_7d":-0.41,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":40.0,"summary":"Diplomatic friction centred on the Cyprus settlement process and on T\u00fcrkiye's new bid for the UN secretary-generalship, while military activity in the Aegean and around Cyprus stayed at the recent routine baseline with no new confirmed incidents. No cyber, GNSS-interference or hydrocarbon-dispute escalation was reported in the past 24 hours.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Hellenic or Turkish MoD report of airspace or naval incidents was found for 3 November; the last confirmed incident was the 30 October interception of two armed Turkish F-16s east of Rhodes (HNDGS via Greek City Times).","z":-0.84,"mean":4.63,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No Hellenic MoD violations bulletin for 3 November was found; the most recent reported Turkish airspace violations (13, plus two F-16 engagements) concerned 30 October."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No new NAVTEX, shadowing or escort incident was reported for 3 November; the Great Sea Interconnector survey NAVTEX remains pending, expected within the first ten days of November."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"President Christodoulides told UN envoy Holgu\u00edn he was 'strongly dissatisfied' that she met T\u00fcrkiye's ambassador to the north, which Nicosia's spokesman called incompatible with UN Security Council Resolution 550; Nicosia separately called T\u00fcrkiye's new UN secretary-general bid a 'political oxymoron' (Cyprus Mail, To Vima).","z":0.24,"mean":4.81,"std":0.77,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-2.0,"note":"No new hydrocarbon, cable or cyber incident was reported for 3 November; the Great Sea Interconnector survey NAVTEX remains pending and the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum dispute continues in the background (To Vima, Politis).","z":-1.44,"mean":5.08,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or emitter interference attributable to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/03/christodoulides-strongly-dissatisfied-with-holguin-over-meeting-with-turkish-envoy","title":"Cyprus Mail: Christodoulides 'strongly dissatisfied' with Holguin over meeting with Turkish envoy","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/03/nicosia-mayors-table-joint-proposal-to-save-buffer-zone-buildings","title":"Cyprus Mail: Nicosia mayors table joint proposal to save buffer zone buildings","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/greece-weighs-response-to-turkeys-un-chief-bid/","title":"To Vima: Greece Weighs Response to Turkey's UN Chief Bid","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-nominates-sinirlioglu-for-un-secretary-general-228824","title":"Hurriyet Daily News: T\u00fcrkiye nominates Sinirlio\u011flu for UN secretary-general","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":"wire"},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/10/31/greek-jets-intercept-armed-turkish-f-16s-east-of-rhodes","title":"Greek City Times: Greek Jets Intercept Armed Turkish F-16s East of Rhodes","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/israel-reiterates-condemnation-of-turkey-libya-maritime-deal-backs-athens-rights/","title":"To Vima: Israel Reiterates Condemnation of Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal, Backs Athens' Rights","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.politis.com.cy/news/economy/1031544/navtex-expected-within-weeks-for-great-sea-interconnector-surveys","title":"Politis: NAVTEX Expected Within Weeks for Great Sea Interconnector Surveys","domain":"en.politis.com.cy","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/10/15/how-the-path-was-cleared-for-work-to-resume-on-the-greece-cyprus-cable-frances-moves-and-the-turkey-backdrop/","title":"ProtoThema English: How the path was cleared for work to resume on the Greece-Cyprus cable: France's moves and the Turkey backdrop","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null}],"notes":"- Diplomatic friction on 3 November centred on two threads: the Cyprus settlement process (Christodoulides' displeasure at UN envoy Mar\u00eda \u00c1ngela Holgu\u00edn's meeting with T\u00fcrkiye's ambassador to the north) and T\u00fcrkiye's new bid, via former foreign minister Feridun Sinirlio\u011flu, for the UN secretary-generalship, which Nicosia's government spokesman called a \"political oxymoron\" given T\u00fcrkiye's position on Cyprus.\n- Despite that friction, the UN-mediated Cyprus process continued on schedule: Holgu\u00edn was due to meet Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erh\u00fcrman on 4 November, and Christodoulides and Erh\u00fcrman are due to hold a joint meeting on 9 November.\n- A bicommunal proposal from the mayors of Nicosia to preserve derelict buffer-zone buildings points to continued low-level cooperation alongside the political friction.\n- No Hellenic or Turkish MoD report of new airspace, naval or buffer-zone incidents was found for the 24-hour window; the most recent reported military incident remains the 30 October interception of two armed Turkish F-16s east of Rhodes.\n- The Great Sea Interconnector seabed survey remains stalled pending a Greek NAVTEX, expected within the first ten days of November; the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum, ratified by Libya's parliament on 20 October, continues to draw pushback from Greece, Cyprus and Israel but saw no new development on 3 November.\n- No Turkish or Turkish Cypriot statement responding directly to the Christodoulides-Holgu\u00edn episode was found as of publication. What to watch: the outcome of Holgu\u00edn's 4 November meeting with Erh\u00fcrman and the 9 November joint meeting.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-05","risk":39.71,"absolute":41.5,"z":-0.22,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":3.3,"slope_7d":-0.56,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":42.0,"summary":"The European Commission's 2026 enlargement report, published 4 November, warned T\u00fcrkiye over a rise in Aegean airspace and territorial-water violations, continued obstruction of Greece-Cyprus cable survey work, and non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus; Ankara's foreign ministry rejected the findings as biased. No new military incident was confirmed for the 24-hour window, and Cyprus settlement diplomacy continued toward a 9 November trilateral meeting.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No new Hellenic MoD airspace or naval violations bulletin was found for 3-5 November; the EU's 2026 report cites a broader rise in Turkish overflights of Greek islands, most recently in September.","z":-0.79,"mean":4.59,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No Hellenic General Staff violations report was located for the period; the cited rise in overflights in the EU report refers to incidents through September 2026, not today."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No NAVTEX dispute, vessel-shadowing or exercise-area incident was reported for 3-5 November; late-October Eunomia-related NAVTEX friction was not renewed."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"The European Commission's 2026 enlargement report (4 Nov) warned T\u00fcrkiye over Aegean violations, the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum and non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus; T\u00fcrkiye's foreign ministry rejected the findings as biased and one-sided.","z":0.24,"mean":4.81,"std":0.77,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Commission's report said T\u00fcrkiye has continued to obstruct survey work for the Greece-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector, an EU Project of Common Interest; no new disruption to the project was reported for the period.","z":-0.05,"mean":5.04,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference incident attributable to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported for 3-5 November.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/11/04/eu-warns-turkey-over-aegean-threats-libya-deal-and-cyprus-cable/","title":"ProtoThema English: EU warns Turkey over Aegean threats, Libya deal and Cyprus cable","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/world/eu-commission-warns-turkey-over-aegean-violations-libya-deal/","title":"To Vima: EU Commission Warns Turkey Over Aegean Violations, Libya Deal","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/11/05/eu-warns-turkey-aegean-libya-cyprus","title":"Greek City Times: EU Warns Turkey Over Greece, Aegean and Cyprus Disputes","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/11/04/eu-warns-turkeys-democratic-decline-is-widening-gap-with-membership-ambitions/","title":"Turkish Minute: EU warns Turkey's democratic decline is widening gap with membership ambitions","domain":"turkishminute.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/04/unficyp-briefs-uk-delegation-on-developments-in-cyprus-buffer-zone","title":"Cyprus Mail: Unficyp briefs UK delegation on developments in Cyprus buffer zone","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/03/nicosia-mayors-table-joint-proposal-to-save-buffer-zone-buildings","title":"Cyprus Mail: Nicosia mayors table joint proposal to save buffer zone buildings","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://it.euronews.com/2026/11/02/cipro-linviata-onu-olguin-ottimista-prima-del-vertice-trilaterale-con-leader-dellisola","title":"Euronews: Cyprus - UN envoy Holgu\u00edn optimistic ahead of trilateral summit with island's leaders (Italian)","domain":"it.euronews.com","category":null}],"notes":"- Today's reading is driven by the European Commission's 2026 enlargement report (published 4 November), which restates known disputes (the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya memorandum, obstruction of the Great Sea Interconnector cable survey, non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus) rather than a new incident; T\u00fcrkiye's foreign ministry rejected the report as biased.\n- No new Hellenic MoD violations bulletin, NAVTEX dispute, or buffer-zone incident was confirmed for 3-5 November; today's elevated diplomatic score reflects institutional friction, not fresh military activity.\n- UNFICYP head Khassim Diagne briefed a visiting UK delegation on \"developments within and around the buffer zone\" on 4 November without disclosing specifics, so no incident could be independently confirmed or scored.\n- The Cyprus settlement track remains active: UN envoy Maria Angela Holgu\u00edn met Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erh\u00fcrman on 2 November to prepare for a trilateral meeting with President Nikos Christodoulides on 9 November  -  a date to watch.\n- Nicosia's Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot mayors proposed joint measures to preserve derelict buffer-zone buildings (3 November), a minor confidence-building signal distinct from the day's main diplomatic friction.\n- Calibration note: the index's public API returned published scores only through 24 October 2026 at the time of this fetch; no entries for the intervening period (25 Oct-4 Nov) were available, so today's scores are anchored to that last published baseline together with the rubric and anchors.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-06","risk":36.74,"absolute":40.0,"z":-0.41,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":-2.97,"slope_7d":-2.01,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":38.0,"summary":"No new Aegean airspace, naval or Cyprus buffer-zone incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours. Diplomatic friction stayed elevated as Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan visited the Turkish Cypriot north  -  called \"illegal and deplorable\" by the Cyprus presidential office  -  while UN-mediated talks on new crossing points intensified ahead of a confirmed 9 November trilateral meeting, and as Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot administration rejected the European Commission's 4 November report on Cyprus and the Aegean.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"No Aegean airspace, naval or Cyprus buffer-zone incidents were confirmed by Greek, Turkish or Cypriot sources in the past 24 hours.","z":-0.74,"mean":4.56,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No new Athens FIR or Greek airspace violations were reported by Greek or Turkish sources in the past 24 hours."},"naval":{"score":4.0,"justification":"No NAVTEX disputes, vessel-shadowing or buffer-zone incidents were reported in the past 24 hours; the Pyla area has been quiet since the summer."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":-1.0,"note":"Fidan's 5 Nov visit to the Turkish Cypriot north, criticised by Nicosia, coincided with intensifying UN-mediated talks on four new crossing points and both Ankara's and the Turkish Cypriot administration's rejection of the EU's 4 Nov report on Cyprus.","z":0.24,"mean":4.81,"std":0.77,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":-2.0,"note":"No new EEZ, hydrocarbon or Great Sea Interconnector developments were reported in the past 24 hours; the only related item is the EU's 4 Nov criticism of Turkish obstruction of GSI surveys and the Turkey-Libya memorandum, outside today's window.","z":-1.38,"mean":5.04,"std":0.75,"delta":-1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar interference attributed to Greece, Cyprus or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/06/cyprus-problem-at-critical-point-says-palace","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus problem at 'critical point' says palace","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/05/fidan-to-visit-north-as-talks-intensify-over-four-new-crossing-points","title":"Cyprus Mail: Fidan to visit north as talks intensify over four new crossing points","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-cypriots-reject-eu-report-as-biased-229081","title":"Hurriyet Daily News: Turkish Cypriots reject EU report as biased","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkiye-rejects-eus-2026-report-as-biased-unfair","title":"Daily Sabah: Turkiye rejects EU's 2026 report as biased, unfair","domain":"dailysabah.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/11/04/eu-warns-turkey-over-aegean-threats-libya-deal-and-cyprus-cable/","title":"ProtoThema English: EU warns Turkey over Aegean threats, Libya deal and Cyprus cable","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration feed at","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration feed at https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1794042737989000&sa=E has no entries after 25 October 2026; today's scores and deltas are benchmarked against the rubric anchors and that last available reading (military 5, diplomatic 6, economic_info 6, ew_sigint 3), so deltas should be read as spanning an unscored multi-day gap rather than a single day's move.\n- The European Commission's 2026 enlargement report (published 4 Nov) said Turkish overflights of Greek islands and violations of Greek airspace/territorial waters have increased, with the latest cited incidents from September 2026; it also criticised the ratified Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum and continued Turkish obstruction of Great Sea Interconnector survey work. Turkey's foreign ministry (4 Nov) and the Turkish Cypriot administration (5-6 Nov) rejected the report as biased. This episode mostly predates today's 24-hour window and is noted here as context.\n- UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin is working to finalise confidence-building measures, including four proposed crossing points (Athienou-Aglandjia, proposed by the Greek Cypriot side; Mia Milia and Louroujina, proposed by the Turkish Cypriot side; and a Lefka-area crossing near Kambos), ahead of a UN-confirmed trilateral meeting between President Christodoulides, Turkish Cypriot leader Erhurman and Holguin on Monday, 9 November.\n- No Pyla buffer-zone incidents, NAVTEX disputes or GNSS/radar interference specific to Greece, Cyprus or Turkiye were found in the sources checked for this period.\n- Watch: whether the confidence-building announcements both Christodoulides and Holguin have flagged for \"over the weekend\" materialise, and the outcome of Monday's trilateral meeting.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-07","risk":40.22,"absolute":41.5,"z":-0.16,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":3.48,"slope_7d":-1.15,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":40.0,"summary":"Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX notices rejecting Greek and Cypriot authority to survey two separate undersea cable routes, the Crete-Cyprus power interconnector and a Saudi Arabia-Greece telecom cable via Cyprus's EEZ, after Athens licensed survey work on 6 November. Category scores held at the elevated levels seen since late October, driven by this cable dispute, continuing drone-linked Aegean airspace violations, and a visit by Turkish FM Fidan to the north of Cyprus restating Ankara's two-state position.","categories":{"military":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"7 Turkish UAVs and a Navy ATR-72 logged 15 Greek airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR infringements in data released 6 Nov; no naval incidents reported.","z":-0.69,"mean":4.52,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":5.0,"justification":"15 airspace violations and 11 FIR infringements by drones and one maritime patrol aircraft over the northeastern, central and southeastern Aegean (data released 6 Nov)."},"naval":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No naval shadowing, interception or standoff incidents were reported around the cable-survey vessels or elsewhere."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Turkish FM Fidan visited the north of Cyprus on 6 Nov to meet Erhurman, Ustel and Ertugruloglu and restate Ankara's two-state position, as UN envoy Holguin's shuttle visit continued.","z":0.3,"mean":4.78,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX 1105/26 and 1100/26 (Antalya) rejecting Greek and Cypriot authority over surveys for the GSI power cable (Abeille Marengo) and the East to Med Corridor telecom cable (Kobi Ruegg).","z":0.05,"mean":4.96,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing or other interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Turkiye were reported in the period.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/06/turkey-issues-counter-navtex-challenging-cyprus-over-east-med-cable-surveys","title":"Cyprus Mail: Turkey issues counter-Navtex challenging Cyprus over East Med cable surveys","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/11/06/the-navtex-battle-between-greece-turkey-over-the-cable-to-cyprus-has-begun-with-ankara-making-provocative-demands/","title":"ProtoThema English: The \"NAVTEX battle\" between Greece & Turkey over the cable to Cyprus has begun, with Ankara making provocative demands","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-objects-to-east-med-cable-surveys-229129","title":"Hurriyet Daily News: Turkiye objects to East Med cable surveys","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/turkiye-says-french-ship-plans-unauthorized-survey-on-its-continental-shelf-3231893","title":"Turkiye Today: Turkiye says French ship plans unauthorized survey on its continental shelf","domain":"turkiyetoday.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/11/07/turkish-drones-record-15-airspace-violations-over-aegean","title":"Greek City Times: Turkish Drones Record 15 Airspace Violations Over Aegean","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.trtworld.com/article/505fff4e18b8","title":"TRT World: Turkiye's Fidan to visit TRNC for talks on Cyprus issue","domain":"trtworld.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/04/unficyp-briefs-uk-delegation-on-developments-in-cyprus-buffer-zone","title":"Cyprus Mail: Unficyp briefs UK delegation on developments in Cyprus buffer zone","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null}],"notes":"- The 15 airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR infringements attributed to 7 Turkish UAVs and one Navy ATR-72 were in data released on 6 November, which under the Hellenic MoD's usual reporting lag likely concerns the preceding day's activity; no scrambles, armed formations or naval incidents were reported alongside them.\n- Two separate undersea-cable disputes are now running in parallel: the Crete-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector survey (vessel Abeille Marengo, Greek NAVTEX HA15-1411/26) and the Saudi Arabia-Greece East to Med Corridor telecom cable survey in Cyprus's EEZ (vessel Kobi Ruegg, Cypriot NAVTEX MA86-337/26). Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX notices for both (1105/26 and 1100/26, Antalya station) and said it had cancelled the Greek and Cypriot notices; Athens and Nicosia have not withdrawn theirs.\n- Turkish FM Hakan Fidan's 6 November visit to the north of Cyprus, meeting Erhurman, Ustel and Ertugruloglu, restated Ankara's two-state position; this ran alongside the ongoing shuttle visit by UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar (29 Oct-10 Nov).\n- UNFICYP briefed a visiting UK delegation on 4 November on unspecified buffer-zone developments; no new buffer-zone incident was confirmed within the 24-hour window.\n- No GNSS jamming or spoofing incidents were found reported as attributable to Greece, Cyprus or Turkiye in the period.\n- Category scores are unchanged from the 5 November reading; the day's news intensifies the existing cable-survey dispute and adds a ministerial Cyprus visit, but without incidents that would move scores beyond the routine-to-notable band already in place since late October.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]},{"date":"2026-11-08","risk":50.79,"absolute":46.5,"z":0.54,"band":"tense","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":10.57,"slope_7d":1.46,"baseline_ready":true,"upstream_composite":49.0,"summary":"Diplomatic and economic-security friction centred on the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnector: Athens and Nicosia issued NAVTEX notices for seabed surveys by the French vessel Abeille Marengo, and T\u00fcrkiye answered within minutes with a counter-NAVTEX citing its claimed continental shelf. Rhetoric stayed measured on both sides, but the dispute echoes a 2024 precedent that reportedly led to a naval standoff over similar surveys.","categories":{"military":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":1.0,"note":"Turkish counter-NAVTEX 1105/26 disputed Greek/Cypriot authorisation for the Abeille Marengo's cable-survey route off Kasos, raising naval-standoff risk though no vessel confrontation was confirmed as of writing.","z":0.69,"mean":4.48,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false,"components":{"airspace":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Greek reporting (unconfirmed) described a Turkish UAV, callsign VATOZ17, flying intermittent-transponder surveillance circuits along the planned cable route; no confirmed Hellenic Air Force violation count was published for 6-7 November."},"naval":{"score":5.0,"justification":"Greece and Cyprus issued NAVTEX notices (6 Nov) for the Abeille Marengo's survey work, and T\u00fcrkiye issued counter-NAVTEX TURNHOS 1105/26 minutes later, asserting jurisdiction and demanding coordination."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":5.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Cyprus and Greece publicly challenged T\u00fcrkiye's UN secretary-general candidate, Feridun Sinirlioglu, on Cyprus recognition and the T\u00fcrkiye-Libya maritime memorandum at the UN General Assembly, while Turkish FM Fidan called the cable dispute \"normal\".","z":0.35,"mean":4.74,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":6.0,"delta_reported":2.0,"note":"Dueling NAVTEX notices over the Great Sea Interconnector survey route (Greek HA15-1411/26 vs Turkish TURNHOS 1105/26) renewed the EEZ/continental-shelf dispute, with T\u00fcrkiye citing its 2020 UN shelf submission and the Turkey-Libya memorandum.","z":1.38,"mean":4.96,"std":0.75,"delta":1.0,"spike":false},"ew_sigint":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No GNSS jamming, spoofing, or radar-interference incident linked to Greece, Cyprus, or T\u00fcrkiye was reported in this window; scored at the routine default.","z":0.0,"mean":3.0,"std":0.75,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/07/fidan-plays-down-cable-dispute-as-abeille-marengo-prepares-to-sail","title":"Cyprus Mail: Fidan plays down GSI cable dispute as Abeille Marengo prepares to sail","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/07/cyprus-and-greece-press-turkish-un-chief-candidate-on-international-law","title":"Cyprus Mail: Cyprus and Greece press Turkish UN chief candidate on international law","domain":"cyprus-mail.com","category":null},{"url":"https://en.protothema.gr/2026/11/07/athens-on-alert-after-turkish-escalation-over-cable-project-abeille-marengo-prepares-to-depart-heraklion/","title":"ProtoThema English: Athens on alert after Turkish escalation over Cable project - \"Abeille Marengo\" prepares to depart Heraklion","domain":"en.protothema.gr","category":null},{"url":"https://www.tovima.com/politics/dueling-navtexs-turkey-issues-counter-notification-challenging-greek-authorization-for-cable-surveys/","title":"To Vima: Dueling NAVTEXs - Turkey Issues Counter-Notification Challenging Greek Authorization for Cable Surveys","domain":"tovima.com","category":null},{"url":"https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/11/07/greece-turkey-cable-survey-abeille-marengo","title":"Greek City Times: Greece Defies Turkey as Cable Survey Ship Prepares to Depart","domain":"greekcitytimes.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-rejects-eus-2026-report-as-biased-unfair-229055","title":"Hurriyet Daily News: Turkiye rejects EU's 2026 report as biased, unfair","domain":"hurriyetdailynews.com","category":"wire"},{"url":"https://en.parapolitika.gr/politics/318165/athens-shields-greece-cyprus-power-link-ready-for-all-scenarios-after-turkeys-anti-navtex/","title":"Parapolitika: Athens shields Greece-Cyprus power link - \"Ready for all scenarios\" after Turkey's anti-NAVTEX","domain":"en.parapolitika.gr","category":null},{"url":"http://aegeanindex.org","title":"Calibration note","domain":"aegeanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration note: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://aegeanindex.org&source=gmail&ust=1794215428584000&sa=E's public feed's newest visible entry was 28 October 2026 (11 days before this reading), with no entries found for 29 Oct-7 Nov; the deltas above are measured against that 28 Oct baseline, the latest available.\n- The GSI/EMC cable dispute has recurred since at least mid-October (Eunomia-exercise NAVTEX clash, 16 Oct), and a similar 2024 survey attempt reportedly led to a Greek-Turkish naval standoff; worth watching once Abeille Marengo reaches the contested stretch east of Kasos toward the Cypriot EEZ.\n- The reported Turkish UAV surveillance (callsign VATOZ17) is sourced only to Greek reporting citing unnamed tracking; treat as an unconfirmed claim pending Turkish or primary confirmation.\n- Turkish FM Fidan's conciliatory tone (\"everything is normal, everything is good\") contrasts with the formal Turkish Foreign Ministry/Navy objections and the counter-NAVTEX, suggesting Ankara is not seeking escalation for now.\n- The EU's 2026 enlargement report (4 Nov), which criticised Turkiye over Aegean conduct, the Libya memorandum, and Cyprus, continues to generate Turkish pushback into this window; not scored as new since the report itself predates the 24-hour window.\n- No confirmed daily airspace-violation count or GNSS-interference report was found for 6-7 November; those two sub-scores reflect the absence of reporting, not confirmed calm.","retrospective":false,"revised":false,"revision_count":0,"revisions":[]}],"limited":{"days":30,"log":7,"total_days":73,"first_date":"2026-08-25"}}