Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 25 Aug 2026

Retrospective: No new incident. Background disputes: Türkiye's formal challenge (19 Aug) to Greece's new renewable-energy spatial framework in the Aegean and the Greek rebuttal that its sovereignty is not open to question; the marine-parks row since 15 Aug; Türkiye's Oruç Reis seismic survey for a planned pipeline to the north of Cyprus under a NAVTEX running to 30 Aug.

• Military posture: 3/10 · No specific incident reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Exchange of statements over Greece's renewable-energy spatial framework (Turkish MFA 19 Aug, Greek MFA reply 21 Aug) remains unresolved.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Oruç Reis seismic surveys for a Türkiye-north Cyprus gas pipeline continue under NAVTEX to 30 Aug; Nicosia calls the activity illegal.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• GreekReporter: Turkey challenges Greece's new green energy plan, opening another Aegean dispute
• GreekReporter: Greece tells Turkey its sovereignty in the Aegean cannot be questioned
• Greek City Times: Turkey issues NAVTEX for Oruc Reis seismic surveys in occupied Cyprus waters

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