Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index32 / 100
24 h change−2.5
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment26 Aug 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 26 Aug 2026

Retrospective: De-escalatory signal on Cyprus: Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Erhürman met in the UN buffer zone and agreed to meet weekly after the UN Secretary-General's July visit. No Greek-Turkish incidents reported.

  • Military posture: 3/10 · No specific incident reported.
  • Diplomatic / political: 3/10 · Christodoulides-Erhürman meeting in the buffer zone; the leaders agree to weekly meetings (crossing points still unresolved).
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Oruç Reis survey activity for the Türkiye-north Cyprus pipeline continues.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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