Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 28 Aug 2026

Retrospective: A Turkish drone entered Greek airspace near Alexandroupoli, operating between Samothrace and Lemnos; two Greek F-16s were scrambled and a departing airliner was told to use a different runway and stay low. The same day, Turkish intelligence chief Kalın made an unannounced visit to Athens, meeting his Greek counterpart Demiris and PM Mitsotakis.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Turkish UAV airspace violation near Alexandroupoli; two F-16s scrambled; civil traffic affected at the airport.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Kalın-Demiris meeting and a call on Mitsotakis: a quiet communication channel opened even as rhetoric stays high.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Euronews: Greek F-16s intercept Turkish drone over northern Aegean
• Turkish Minute: Greece scrambles F-16s after Turkish drone enters airspace near Alexandroupolis
• Hürriyet Daily News: Turkish, Greek spy chiefs discuss Aegean tension in rare meeting

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