Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 1 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Türkiye's Antalya station issues NAVTEX 0862/26 for water-column research by R/V TÜBİTAK Marmara southwest of Kastellorizo (Meis) from 1 to 15 Sep; the vessel sails from Marmaris.

• Military posture: 4/10 · Research vessel deployment near Kastellorizo (Meis) under a Turkish NAVTEX; Greek monitoring begins.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Post-Achilles Shield rhetoric continues; NAVTEX authority in the area is disputed.
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · Research activity in waters Greece regards as its continental shelf.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• To Vima: Turkish research vessel near Kastellorizo
• Greek City Times: Greece fires back at Turkey with counter NAVTEX as research ship moves near Kastellorizo

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