Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 3 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Turkish media amplify Erdoğan's warnings, casting Greece as a "bad neighbour" and an "Israeli pawn". Ankara sends Athens a formal note on Greece's special spatial planning frameworks. TÜBİTAK Marmara's survey continues.

• Military posture: 4/10 · Research vessel operations continue under NAVTEX; no incident reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Formal Turkish note on Greek spatial planning; Erdoğan's island demands repeated in coverage.
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · Coordinated media framing of Greece as 'Israel's pawn' in Turkish outlets.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Greek City Times: Turkish media escalates attack on Greece after Erdogan's Aegean threats
• Greek City Times: Turkey escalates pressure on Greece: threats, NAVTEX, research ships and the 'Blue Homeland' agenda

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