Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index36 / 100
24 h change−8.3
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment5 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 5 Sep 2026

Retrospective: No new incident reported. The TÜBİTAK Marmara NAVTEX southwest of Kastellorizo (Meis) runs to 15 Sep, and the Chios-Lesvos cable repair continues.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · No new incident; ongoing Greek monitoring of the research vessel.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · No new official exchanges reported.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Ongoing cable repair and research-vessel activity; no new dispute.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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