Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index33 / 100
24 h change+3.4
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment9 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 9 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Macron and Mitsotakis agree a French 66% stake in the Great Sea Interconnector, with a French-flagged vessel to carry out the seabed surveys. Reports name Greece and Israel in a suspected Turkish spyware operation. The marine-parks dispute is described as undermining the 'calm waters' policy.

  • Military posture: 3/10 · No specific incident reported.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Marine-parks dispute weighing on the bilateral 'calm waters' approach.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · French controlling stake in the Cyprus-Crete interconnector; spyware allegations involving Greece and Israel.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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