Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 10 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Background tension carried into the window: Turkish complaints over island militarisation after Greece's Israeli air-defence deal, the marine-parks dispute, and France taking a controlling stake in the Great Sea Interconnector (agreed 9 Sep). No new military incident reported.

• Military posture: 3/10 · No specific incident reported; routine posture after the late-August drone incursion near Alexandroupoli.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Ankara's island-militarisation complaints and the marine-parks row continue; Mitsotakis announces a Kastellorizo visit.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Macron-Mitsotakis agreement on French 66% stake in the Great Sea Interconnector (9 Sep); reports naming Greece and Israel in a suspected Turkish spyware operation (9 Sep).
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Greek City Times: France takes bigger stake in Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable as Turkey objects
• Greek City Times: Greece and Israel named in suspected Turkey spyware attack
• Keep Talking Greece: 'Marine parks' drown 'calm waters' policy between Greece and Turkey

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