Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 11 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Heaviest air activity of the period: six Turkish F-16s (four armed) and three UAVs caused 10 airspace violations and 10 FIR infringements, with two mock dogfights against Greek fighters. Mitsotakis heads to Kastellorizo.

• Military posture: 5/10 · 6 F-16s (4 armed) + 3 UAVs; 10 airspace violations, 10 FIR infringements, 2 engagements with Greek fighters.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · PM's Kastellorizo trip framed in Greek media as a defiant message to Ankara; no new official exchanges.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident; interconnector survey timing (late Sep to Nov) still unresolved.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Greek City Times: Turkish F-16s trigger two engagements over Aegean as Greece records 10 airspace violations
• Greek City Times: Mitsotakis heads to Kastellorizo as Athens sends defiant message to Ankara

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