Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 13 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Kastellorizo liberation anniversary events close the PM's visit. Commentary highlights the interconnector's exposure to regional volatility. Quiet militarily.

• Military posture: 3/10 · No incident reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Anniversary speeches; no new Turkish response yet.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Analysis of the Great Sea Interconnector's route through Turkish-claimed waters south of Kasos, Karpathos and Rhodes.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Cyprus Mail: Great Sea Interconnector ties Cyprus to regional volatility
• To Vima: Mitsotakis to mark Kastellorizo anniversary amid Turkey tensions

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