Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index30 / 100
24 h change+0.2
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment14 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 14 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Annual Asia Minor remembrance-day exchange: Türkiye's MFA (statement No. 179) rejects Greek statements as "unfounded" and restates historical grievances. A ritual exchange, not a new escalation. Coverage of French backing for the interconnector and Turkish objections.

  • Military posture: 3/10 · No incident reported.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Turkish MFA No. 179 rejects Greek 14 Sep remembrance statements; recurring annual exchange.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Reporting on France's larger interconnector stake and Ankara's objection that islands don't generate full EEZ rights.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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