Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 15 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Turkish FM Fidan, in Azerbaijan, says Greek militarisation of demilitarised islands "constitutes a threat for us" and warns Athens against becoming a tool of those seeking to destabilise the region.

• Military posture: 3/10 · No incident reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Fidan: island militarisation 'a threat for us'; warns Greece against being a tool of destabilisers.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Turkish outlets keep up the 'bad neighbour' and 'pawn of Israel' framing.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Turkish Minute: Turkish FM issues warning over Greek island militarization
• Middle East Monitor: Turkey accuses Greece of militarising demilitarised Aegean islands

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