Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 16 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Athens rejects Fidan's claims: the Greek MFA spokesman says they "have nothing to do with reality" and that Greece defends all its territory. Rhetorical escalation on both sides, nothing at sea.

• Military posture: 3/10 · No incident reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Greek MFA rebuts Fidan; the demilitarisation dispute is openly active at FM/spokesman level.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Turkish Minute: Turkish FM issues warning over Greek island militarization
• Middle East Monitor: Turkey accuses Greece of militarising demilitarised Aegean islands

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