Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index43 / 100
24 h change+7.3
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment17 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 17 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Turkish Defence Ministry (Rear Adm. Aktürk) says Greek troops and naval vessels on Kastellorizo violate its demilitarised status under the 1947 Paris treaty. International coverage frames Greece-Israel ties as the driver of new friction.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · Turkish MoD formally contests Greek military presence on Kastellorizo; preparations for a large Turkish naval exercise emerge.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · MoD statement adds a military voice to the FM's demilitarisation line; Greek-Israel ties in international press.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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