Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 18 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Türkiye announces the Denizkurdu-I exercise (20-24 Sep, four seas, finale aboard TCG Anadolu). Greek units move to heightened readiness, with navy, submarines and surveillance assets tasked to monitor.

• Military posture: 4/10 · Denizkurdu-I announced for 20-24 Sep; Greek forces at heightened readiness.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · No new official exchanges; statements taper off.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

• Neos Kosmos: Greece on alert as Turkey prepares major naval exercise in Aegean

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