Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index45 / 100
24 h change+7.2
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalSpike · 1 category
Assessment19 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 19 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Greece on alert as Turkish naval units deploy for Denizkurdu-I; Hellenic Navy ships and submarines take up monitoring positions in the Aegean.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Turkish fleet deploying for Denizkurdu-I; Greek naval and submarine monitoring deployment.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · No new official exchanges.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming or emitter incidents reported in open sources.

Sources

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