Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 20 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Denizkurdu-I begins: about 100 vessels, 50 aircraft including drones and 14,000 personnel across the Black Sea, Marmara, Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. Its Aegean deployment toward Greece is described as relatively cautious.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Denizkurdu-I under way (~100 ships, 50 aircraft, 14,000 personnel); cautious Aegean deployment.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Turkish media present the drill as happening 'amid tensions'; no new official exchanges.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
• EW / SIGINT: 4/10 · No incidents reported; elevated EW and emitter activity is plausible during a multi-sea exercise but unconfirmed in open sources.

Sources

• Daily Sabah: Sea Wolf maritime drill begins amid tensions between Greece, Türkiye
• Athens News: 100 ships and 14,000 military: Türkiye began large-scale exercises in the Aegean

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