Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 22 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Erdogan's UNGA speech calls for recognition of the Turkish Cypriot state and restates Aegean positions under a dialogue framing. Greece reports new airspace and FIR violations by Turkish aircraft and drones.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Airspace and FIR violations by Turkish aircraft and drones reported; exercise continues.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Erdogan at UNGA: TRNC recognition call and Aegean/East Med positions, framed as dialogue and good neighbourliness.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new economic or cyber incident.
• EW / SIGINT: 4/10 · No incidents reported; exercise-related emissions plausible but unconfirmed.

Sources

• GreekReporter: Erdogan sends Greece message from UN amid renewed Aegean tensions
• Greek City Times: Erdoğan uses UN speech to push Cyprus recognition and Aegean agenda
• Greek City Times: New Turkish provocation violates Greek airspace

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