Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index49 / 100
24 h change−0.3
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment23 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 23 Sep 2026

Retrospective: Türkiye issues a month-long NOTAM (25 Sep to 27 Oct; five areas, six air routes from the north Aegean to the Dodecanese) and Greece answers with a counter-NOTAM. Athens prepares its UN response. Exercise heads toward its 24 Sep finale.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · Unilateral Turkish NOTAM for 25 Sep to 27 Oct; Greek counter-NOTAM; Denizkurdu-I nearing its peak.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Greece prepares firm messages for its UN address; no bilateral contact.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · Media rhetoric war builds; interconnector survey dispute unresolved ahead of an October start.
  • EW / SIGINT: 4/10 · No incidents reported; exercise-related emissions plausible but unconfirmed.

Sources

Open the interactive view → · Sign in to download the full data (CSV/JSON, free account)