Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 25 Sep 2026

Türkiye's Denizkurdu-I/2026 naval exercise wound down with continued Greek-reported airspace violations, while Prime Minister Mitsotakis struck a more conciliatory tone at the UN General Assembly on Cyprus and the Aegean, citing Erdoğan's recent 'not an enemy' remark; no new economic, cyber or electronic-warfare incidents were reported on the day.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Greek MoD reported 6 Turkish aircraft (5 UAVs, 1 ATR-72) with 9 Athens FIR violations and 6 national-airspace violations over the NE, central and SE Aegean as Denizkurdu-I/2026 wound down; the 23 September buffer-zone incident near Denia remains under UNFICYP mediation.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Mitsotakis told the UN General Assembly that dialogue with Türkiye must rest on international law and cannot coexist with 'threats of war', striking a more conciliatory tone after Erdoğan called Greece 'not an enemy'; Guterres and Mitsotakis discussed reviving Cyprus talks with no breakthrough reported.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · Turkish media continued to circulate the Defence Ministry's 24 September demand that any Great Sea Interconnector cable work on its claimed continental shelf be coordinated with Ankara; no new economic or cyber incident was reported on the day.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or emitter incidents specific to 25 September were found in open sources, and Denizkurdu-I's conclusion removed the main plausible source of exercise-related emissions.

Sources

• Hellenic National Defence General Staff violations report, via https://www.google.com/url?q=http://onalert.gr&source=gmail&ust=1790439528194000&sa=E: Turkish drones and ATR-72 violate national airspac
• Habertürk: Denizkurdu-I/2026 exercise concludes with fleet pass-in-review (Turkish)
• Cyprus Mail: Cyprus a 'litmus test' of UN's credibility, Mitsotakis tells general assembly
• Cyprus Mail: Guterres, Mitsotakis discuss Cyprus problem
• To Vima: Mitsotakis keeps Turkey dialogue open, defends red lines
• Hürriyet: Mitsotakis sends Turkey a message at the UN: 'living side by side is our destiny' (Turkish)
• Turkish Minute: Turkey says Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable must be coordinated with Ankara
• Greek City Times: Turkish soldiers harass Greek Cypriot farmers in Cyprus buffer zone (23 September, cited as continuing context)

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