Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index36 / 100
24 h change−5.2
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment28 Sep 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 28 Sep 2026

Diplomatic friction over Cyprus's failed New York trilateral meeting continued but did not escalate further: UN envoy Maria Angela Holguín confirmed the Turkish Cypriot account and announced a return to Cyprus in October to continue facilitation. In the military domain, a Hellenic General Staff report (published 27 Sep, concerning 25 Sep) recorded routine-level airspace activity following the conclusion of Türkiye's Denizkurdu-I exercise; no new economic, infrastructure or electronic-warfare incidents were reported.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · Hellenic MoD reported 6 national airspace violations and 9 Athens FIR infringements by Turkish UAVs and an ATR-72, concerning 25 Sep activity; Denizkurdu-I (concluded 25 Sep) produced no new incidents.
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · UN envoy Holguín corroborated Erhürman's account of why the New York trilateral did not occur and will return to Cyprus in October; no new summons, protests or ultimatums reported.
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new reporting on the Great Sea Interconnector, EEZ licensing disputes or cyber activity in the past 24 hours; background friction unchanged.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or emitter incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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