Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 4 Oct 2026

The Aegean exercise-zone standoff between Greece and Türkiye continued for a second day, with Ankara's rejection of Athens's 12-20 October NOTAM still unresolved and Turkish commentators warning that overlapping drills risk direct confrontation. No new airspace, naval or electronic-interference incidents were independently confirmed, and the Great Sea Interconnector dispute remained stalemated.

• Military posture: 5/10 · Turkey's NOTAM A4388/26 declaring Greece's 12-20 Oct exercise notice "null and void" remains unresolved; no new incidents confirmed.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Both sides maintain conflicting NOTAMs for the Aegean exercise zones; no new ministerial statements confirmed in this window.
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · Pro-government Turkish outlets amplified a warning that overlapping drills could become a "hot conflict"; Great Sea Interconnector dispute remains stalemated.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar-interference incidents reported linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye in this window.

Sources

• Greek City Times: Greece Locks In Aegean Exercise Zones As Turkey Protests
• ProtoThema English: Greece and Turkey clash over overlapping military exercises in the Aegean
• Greek City Times: Turkish press fixates on SPIKE NLOS and exercise "Alexandros"
• A Haber: Turkey-Greece NOTAM crisis - analysis warns exercise could become real conflict (Turkish)
• Yeni Akit: NOTAM crisis between Turkey and Greece - "this exercise could turn into a real war" (Turkish)

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