Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index48 / 100
24 h change−0.1
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment12 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 12 Oct 2026

Tension held at its recent plateau. Cyprus reported hundreds of Turkish air and naval violations from earlier months to the UN Secretary-General, and Foreign Minister Kombos was due to raise Türkiye's planned gas pipeline to the occupied north at the EU Foreign Affairs Council. No new military incident was confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours, though the Greek-Turkish NOTAM dispute over Aegean exercise zones remains unresolved as Greece's own 12-20 October drill period opens today.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · No new airspace or naval incident was confirmed in 24h open-source reporting; Greece's Aegean exercise-zone period (NOTAM A3595/26) opened today amid Türkiye's unresolved rival notice (A4388/26).
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Cyprus reported 659 Turkish air and naval violations, concerning June-July, to the UN Secretary-General, per Cyprus Mail.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Cyprus FM Kombos was due to raise Türkiye's planned Alanya-Kyrenia gas pipeline to the occupied north at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg, continuing a dispute over energy infrastructure to the island.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals-interference incident linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the 24-hour window.

Sources

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