Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index41 / 100
24 h change−7.3
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment13 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 13 Oct 2026

No new military incidents were confirmed in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the past 24 hours, and reported airspace activity eased from earlier in the week. The main development was procedural: Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman were due to hold their next round of UN-mediated talks in the buffer zone this afternoon, continuing a process agreed earlier this year. The Aegean exercise-NOTAM dispute and the Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute remain unresolved but unchanged from prior days.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · No new airspace or naval incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours; the most recent Hellenic General Staff-reported violations (six Turkish UAVs, 10 Oct) remain the latest confirmed data.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders were due to hold UN-mediated talks in the buffer zone this afternoon, continuing their agreement to meet weekly; no new ministerial statements or démarches were reported.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · The Great Sea Interconnector seabed-survey dispute remains unresolved; Greece has rejected Ankara's demand for prior authorisation of surveys near Kasos and Karpathos.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing, or communications-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus, or Türkiye were reported.

Sources

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