Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index55 / 100
24 h change+21.0
StatusTENSE
Warning signalSpike · 1 category
Assessment25 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 25 Oct 2026

Diplomatic tension stayed elevated as Greece pressed its rejection of the ratified Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum at the UN Security Council with EU backing, while Greek and Turkish authorities traded NAVTEX notices over a Saudi Arabia-Greece data-cable survey off Crete and Rhodes. No new confirmed airspace or naval incident was reported in the past 24 hours, and a Cyprus-Greece-France-Italy naval exercise south of Cyprus concluded without incident.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · No new confirmed airspace or naval incident in the past 24 hours; the quadrilateral EUNOMIA-7/2026 exercise south of Cyprus concluded Thursday without incident.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · Greece pressed its rejection of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum at the UN Security Council and in EU channels, with Brussels backing Athens and options including sanctions on Libya and extending Greek territorial waters under review; Turkish officials hailed the ratification as vindicating Ankara's claims.
  • Economic / informational: 6/10 · Türkiye and Greece issued dueling NAVTEX notices over a survey for the Saudi Arabia-Greece East to Med Data Corridor cable off Crete and Rhodes, each asserting continental-shelf jurisdiction, while a separate vessel awaits NAVTEX to resume Cyprus-Crete power-cable surveys.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No jamming, spoofing or other interference incident linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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