Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 28 Oct 2026

Diplomatic friction centred on the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, which Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Bahrain, the UAE and the EU called legally void at the UN while President Erdogan defended it, and on a new Turkish marine brigade at Iskenderun that Greek reporting linked to operations around Cyprus. Military and economic indicators otherwise stayed close to the recent range, with no new airspace-violation counts, GNSS interference or infrastructure incidents confirmed in the 24-hour window.

• Military posture: 4/10 · Turkey presented colours for a new marine brigade at Iskenderun and a French vessel reached Crete for cable surveys, but no new violation counts or incidents were confirmed in the window.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE joined Greece, Cyprus and the EU in calling the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum void, which President Erdogan defended; Turkey's defence minister also criticised Nicosia over the Turkish Cypriots' situation.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · A French-flagged vessel reached Crete to begin Great Sea Interconnector cable surveys, still pending NAVTEX; Turkey's energy minister cited possible new exploration deals by year-end, without reference to Greek or Cypriot waters.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals interference was reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the window.

Sources

• Cyprus Mail: Leaders take vow of silence on Cyprus problem substance ahead of Holguin visit
• Cyprus Mail (Reuters): Turkey may make acquisitions, sign deals for further hydrocarbon exploration by year-end
• Greek City Times: Turkey Forms New Marine Brigade as Greece Tests New Drone Systems
• Greek City Times: 'Missiles from Israel, Firings from Greece': Turkish Media Reacts to Joint Exercise North of Crete
• ProtoThema English: Invalid, baseless and contrary to international law: Greece, EU, Egypt, Cyprus, Bahrain and UAE issue joint statement at UN on Turkey-Libya maritime deal
• iefimerida: Survey Ship Sails for Greece-Cyprus Cable Route, Setting Up a Test for Turkey
• Calibration data from

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