Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 2 Nov 2026

Diplomatic friction over the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum carried into the window, as Egypt's and Israel's ambassadors to Athens publicly rejected the deal days after a Greece-Türkiye clash at the UN Security Council. No new Aegean airspace or naval incidents were confirmed, and the Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel remained stalled in Heraklion awaiting a NAVTEX.

• Military posture: 4/10 · No new Athens or Nicosia FIR violations or naval incidents were confirmed for 1-2 November; the latest Hellenic General Staff report concerns 30 October.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Egypt's and Israel's ambassadors to Greece both publicly rejected the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, reinforcing Athens' position after the 29 October Greece-Türkiye clash at the UN Security Council.
• Economic / informational: 5/10 · The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel remains stalled in Heraklion with no NAVTEX issued as of 2 November, while a separate Hellenic Navy-licensed fibre-optic cable survey continues in the Greek EEZ southeast of Crete.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or communications-interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

• Parapolitika: Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal: Egypt's Ambassador Issues Clear Rejection
• Greek City Times: Israeli Ambassador Rejects Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal, Backs Greece
• Türkiye Today: Türkiye rebuts Mitsotakis at UN: 'Security Council not a maritime delimitation court'
• Hürriyet Daily News: Türkiye rejects Greek claims over Libya deal at UN
• Greek City Times: Greek Jets Intercept Armed Turkish F-16s East of Rhodes
• Parapolitika: Greece-Cyprus Electrical Interconnection: Surveys Set to Focus on Kasos
• Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service: NAVTEX Messages
• TA NEA (https://www.google.com/url?q=http://tovima.com&source=gmail&ust=1793697140213000&sa=E): Christodoulides Brings Three Proposals To Talks With Erhurman

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