Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index36 / 100
24 h change−2.9
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment4 Nov 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 4 Nov 2026

Diplomatic friction centred on the Cyprus settlement process and on Türkiye's new bid for the UN secretary-generalship, while military activity in the Aegean and around Cyprus stayed at the recent routine baseline with no new confirmed incidents. No cyber, GNSS-interference or hydrocarbon-dispute escalation was reported in the past 24 hours.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · No new Hellenic or Turkish MoD report of airspace or naval incidents was found for 3 November; the last confirmed incident was the 30 October interception of two armed Turkish F-16s east of Rhodes (HNDGS via Greek City Times).
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · President Christodoulides told UN envoy Holguín he was 'strongly dissatisfied' that she met Türkiye's ambassador to the north, which Nicosia's spokesman called incompatible with UN Security Council Resolution 550; Nicosia separately called Türkiye's new UN secretary-general bid a 'political oxymoron' (Cyprus Mail, To Vima).
  • Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new hydrocarbon, cable or cyber incident was reported for 3 November; the Great Sea Interconnector survey NAVTEX remains pending and the Türkiye-Libya maritime memorandum dispute continues in the background (To Vima, Politis).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or emitter interference attributable to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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