Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index40 / 100
24 h change+3.5
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment7 Nov 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 7 Nov 2026

Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX notices rejecting Greek and Cypriot authority to survey two separate undersea cable routes, the Crete-Cyprus power interconnector and a Saudi Arabia-Greece telecom cable via Cyprus's EEZ, after Athens licensed survey work on 6 November. Category scores held at the elevated levels seen since late October, driven by this cable dispute, continuing drone-linked Aegean airspace violations, and a visit by Turkish FM Fidan to the north of Cyprus restating Ankara's two-state position.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · 7 Turkish UAVs and a Navy ATR-72 logged 15 Greek airspace violations and 11 Athens FIR infringements in data released 6 Nov; no naval incidents reported.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Turkish FM Fidan visited the north of Cyprus on 6 Nov to meet Erhurman, Ustel and Ertugruloglu and restate Ankara's two-state position, as UN envoy Holguin's shuttle visit continued.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Turkey issued counter-NAVTEX 1105/26 and 1100/26 (Antalya) rejecting Greek and Cypriot authority over surveys for the GSI power cable (Abeille Marengo) and the East to Med Corridor telecom cable (Kobi Ruegg).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or other interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Turkiye were reported in the period.

Sources

Open the interactive view → · Sign in to download the full data (CSV/JSON, free account)