Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 9 Nov 2026

No new military incidents were confirmed in the 24 hours to 9 November, but the dispute over Turkish counter-NAVTEX notices for the Great Sea Interconnector cable survey off Kasos continued as the French vessel Abeille Marengo neared the contested corridor out of Heraklion. The US embassy intervened diplomatically, urging Athens, Nicosia and Ankara to let the survey proceed, even as Turkish diplomatic sources called the NAVTEX dispute resolved while Turkey's Foreign Ministry had not withdrawn its formal objection. A separate Turkish counter-NAVTEX against a Cyprus EEZ cable survey, and the EU's 4 November enlargement report criticising Turkish conduct in the Aegean and over the cable, kept the broader economic and diplomatic backdrop active.

• Military posture: 5/10 · The Great Sea Interconnector survey vessel Abeille Marengo neared the disputed Kasos corridor while Turkey's anti-NAVTEX claim stood; no shadowing or confrontation at sea was reported.
• Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · The US embassy relayed a message to Ankara, Athens and Nicosia that no party has grounds to object to the cable survey, while Turkish diplomatic sources called the NAVTEX dispute resolved and Greek officials said there was no coordination with Turkey.
• Economic / informational: 6/10 · Dueling NAVTEX notices over the Great Sea Interconnector and a separate Turkish counter-NAVTEX against a Cyprus EEZ cable survey kept the EEZ and continental-shelf dispute active as the survey vessel neared the contested area.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or communications interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

• ProtoThema English: US intervenes over Greece-Cyprus power cable as Turkey challenges survey operations
• Greek City Times: Greece Begins Countdown as French Vessel Prepares For Cable Survey
• Greek City Times: Turkish Drones Record 15 Airspace Violations Over Aegean
• Naftemporiki: Fidan statements to a Greek correspondent on the cable - everything normal (Greek)
• Dimokratiki tis Rodou: Ankara 'cancels' Greek NAVTEX and expects to be asked permission for the Kasos seabed (Greek)
• Hurriyet Daily News: Turkiye, Greece at odds over maritime notices
• Cyprus Mail: Turkey issues counter-Navtex challenging Cyprus over East Med cable surveys
• The Greek Herald: EU warns Turkey over Aegean threats, Libya deal and Cyprus cable

Open the interactive view → · Sign in to download the full data (CSV/JSON, free account)