Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index58 / 100
24 h change+8.0
StatusTENSE
Warning signalConverging
Assessment7 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 7 Oct 2026

Greek-Turkish tension ticked up on the diplomatic and economic tracks on 6-7 October: US Secretary of State Rubio opened the 6th Greece-U.S. Strategic Dialogue in Athens as Greece confirmed plans to resume Great Sea Interconnector seabed surveys into waters Türkiye claims as its continental shelf, prompting renewed Turkish objections. A Republic of Cyprus-Turkish Cypriot row over a Paphos street renaming added routine friction, while no new airspace, naval or GNSS-interference incidents were confirmed in the 24-hour window.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · No new airspace or naval incidents confirmed in 24h open-source reporting; Greece's A3595/26 (12-20 Oct) and Türkiye's A4388/26 (through 27 Oct) counter-NOTAMs over Aegean exercise zones remain unresolved from prior days.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · US Secretary of State Rubio opened the 6th Greece-U.S. Strategic Dialogue in Athens on 6 Oct, with Greece saying it would raise Turkish 'provocations'; Turkish Cypriot PM Üstel criticised a Paphos street-renaming as damaging to UN talks.
  • Economic / informational: 6/10 · Greece confirmed it will resume Great Sea Interconnector surveys without seeking Turkish approval; Türkiye's Defence Ministry repeated that unauthorised work on its claimed continental shelf will not be permitted.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or other interference incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye were reported in the 24-hour window.

Sources

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