Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

What changed · 9 Oct 2026

Tension held near its recent plateau: the most recent confirmed military reporting, two days old, showed a spike in Turkish airspace violations and a simulated dogfight near Kastellorizo (Meis), while Cyprus-problem and Great Sea Interconnector disputes continued without a newly confirmed incident in the past 24 hours.

• Military posture: 5/10 · GEETHA data reported 7 Oct recorded 15 airspace violations and a simulated dogfight west of Kastellorizo (Meis) concerning 5-6 Oct, the busiest day in two months; no fresher violations report was found for 7-8 Oct.
• Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Routine Cyprus-problem statements: spokesman Letymbiotis (8 Oct) voiced hope for "tangible steps" ahead of Tuesday's Christodoulides-Erhurman meeting, and Turkish Cypriot legislative elections were set for 6 Dec; no summons or sovereignty-narrative escalation found.
• Economic / informational: 4/10 · No new incident was confirmed in the past 24 hours; the Great Sea Interconnector cable and October NOTAM dispute described in recent days' reporting had no fresh development found today.
• EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye were reported today; scored at the routine default.

Sources

• Greek City Times: Turkey Records Highest Number of Airspace Violations in Two Months
• Greek City Times: Armed Turkish F-16s in Dogfight West of Kastelorizo
• Cyprus Mail: Letymbiotis hopes for 'tangible steps' in 'immediate future' on Cyprus problem
• Cyprus Mail: December date set for Turkish Cypriot legislative elections
• Cyprus Mail: Complaints over Barcelona camp festival cancellations noted by EU, Erhurman says
• TAK (Turkish Cypriot News Agency): President Erhürman Sends Three Separate Letters in Response to Obstructive Actions by the Greek Cypriot Side
• Calibration data from

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