Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index48 / 100
24 h change+6.9
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment14 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 14 Oct 2026

Greek-Turkish and intra-Cypriot tension held at its recent plateau. The Republic of Cyprus and Turkish Cypriot leaders met in the UN buffer zone on 13 October and agreed a Cyprus settlement must follow UN Security Council resolutions, though an enlarged five-party meeting remains unresolved. No new airspace, naval or GNSS incident was confirmed in the past 24 hours, and the Aegean exercise-zone NOTAM dispute and Great Sea Interconnector impasse remain unresolved from prior days.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · No new airspace or naval incident confirmed in the 24-hour window; the most recent confirmed violations (6 Turkish UAVs, 8 Athens FIR and 5 national-airspace breaches) were on 10 October per Greek military sources, and the Aegean exercise-zone NOTAM dispute remains unresolved.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Christodoulides and Erhurman met in the UN buffer zone on 13 October, agreeing a settlement must not deviate from UN resolutions and to jointly attend the Pyla bicommunal festival, but reached no agreement on an enlarged five-party meeting.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · No new licensing, cyber or disinformation development was confirmed; the Great Sea Interconnector survey dispute and Turkey's objection to unauthorised seabed work remain stalemated from prior days.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or signals interference was reported in the Aegean or around Cyprus in the window.

Sources

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