Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index37 / 100
24 h change−4.3
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment20 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 20 Oct 2026

Tension held close to its recent plateau. The quadripartite Eunomia exercise went ahead with live fire south of Kastellorizo (Meis) on 19 October alongside a Turkish counter-Navtex disputing Greek maritime jurisdiction, while Nicosia hosted a new round of Cyprus settlement talks and continuing disagreement over financing and survey access for the Greece-Cyprus power cable.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · Eunomia 2026 (Greece, Cyprus, France, Italy) held scheduled live-fire drills south of Kastellorizo on 19 Oct; Greek outlets reported Türkiye's Antalya station issued a competing Navtex disputing Greek jurisdiction over the exercise area.
  • Diplomatic / political: 5/10 · Cyprus Energy Minister Damianos said Great Sea Interconnector costs have risen to 302m euros (from 250m euros) and tied government payments to construction progress; Türkiye is expected to object once a seabed-survey Navtex is issued, expected by month's end.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or other electronic-warfare incidents linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye were reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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