Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index45 / 100
24 h change+7.5
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalSpike · 1 category
Assessment21 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 21 Oct 2026

Libya's parliament ratified the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, prompting Greece and Cyprus to call it void and the EU to reaffirm solidarity with both; Turkey's foreign minister separately said Ankara does not oppose the Greece-Cyprus power cable but demands written notice of surveys. No new military incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours.

  • Military posture: 4/10 · No new airspace, naval or buffer-zone incidents confirmed in the 24-hour window; the most recent reported Turkish airspace violations (four, by UAVs) were on 15 October.
  • Diplomatic / political: 6/10 · Cyprus and Greece both declared Libya's ratification of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum 'illegal, null and void', and EU Council President Costa and Commission President von der Leyen issued a joint solidarity statement with Greece and Cyprus.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · Libya's ratification advances a rival EEZ delimitation southeast of Crete, and Turkish FM Fidan said Ankara does not object to the Greece-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector cable but is demanding written notice of maritime surveys.
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GNSS jamming, spoofing or radar interference specifically attributed to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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