Aegean Tension IndexA daily escalation/de-escalation index for Cyprus, Greece and Türkiye across the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, from open-source indicators & warnings. A heuristic, not a forecast.

Index41 / 100
24 h change+5.1
StatusELEVATED
Warning signalNo spikes
Assessment29 Oct 2026
Last updated05:55 UTC9 Nov 2026

What changed · 29 Oct 2026

The month's running dispute over Aegean seabed-survey NAVTEX notices sharpened: Greece's Heraklion station declared a Turkish notice over a cable survey southeast of Crete "null and void" on 27 October, and Turkey's Antalya station reasserted its claim on 28 October. No new airspace, naval or interference incidents were confirmed in the past 24 hours, and diplomatic contacts stayed at routine, technical level.

  • Military posture: 5/10 · NAVTEX clash over the KOBI RUEGG seabed survey off Crete continued; no new airspace or naval incident was confirmed (Greek City Times, ToVima).
  • Diplomatic / political: 4/10 · Exchange stayed at the technical NAVTEX level; no new ministerial statements on the Aegean or Cyprus talks were found in the window.
  • Economic / informational: 5/10 · EEZ/continental-shelf dispute over the EMC telecom-cable survey intensified; the separate Great Sea Interconnector survey (vessel Abeille Marengo, Heraklion since 27 Oct) still awaits its own NAVTEX, expected only in early November (Keep Talking Greece, Cyprus Mail).
  • EW / SIGINT: 3/10 · No GPS/GNSS jamming, spoofing, or radar/communications interference linked to Greece, Cyprus or Türkiye was reported in the past 24 hours.

Sources

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